Кто такой Артур Хейс. Насколько надежны его прогнозы цены биткоина

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2023-04-14Actualizado a 2025-05-14

Чем известен Артур Хейс и насколько надежны его ценовые прогнозы относительно криптоактивов. Какой долгосрочный прогноз по биткоину сделал основатель крупной криптобиржи

«РБК-Крипто» не дает инвестиционных советов, материал опубликован исключительно в ознакомительных целях. Криптовалюта — это волатильный актив, который может привести к финансовым убыткам.

16 из 20 рыночных прогнозов основателя криптобиржи BitMEX Артура Хейса оказались неверны. Два были точными, еще два касаются будущих цен и пока не поддаются проверке. К такому выводы пришло издание Protos, проанализировав 20 рыночных прогнозов экс-главы ранее крупнейшей биржи деривативов на крипторынке.

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Среди удачных прогнозов Хейса — рост биткоина в декабре 2023 года на фоне ожиданий одобрения спотовых биткоин-ETF в США, а также краткосрочный разворот курса Ethereum в октябре того же года после падения ниже $1,6 тыс.

Еще два его прогноза остаются открытыми, один из них — биткоин по $1 млн к 2028 году. В качестве одной из основных причин такого роста Хейс назвал неспособность США «обуздать государственные расходы».

Примеры прогнозов Хейса

Несмотря на множество ошибочных прогнозов, Хейс и сам признавал неудачи своих предположений. Например, в конце сентября 2024 года он проанализировал восемь своих последних прогнозов на тот момент, охватывающих период с 2023 года по осень 2024 года. К сожалению, только шесть из них оказались верными.

«Это довольно плохо для обычного человека», — прокомментировал свои результаты Хейс.

Вот некоторые из недавних прогнозов, которые не сбылись:

6 сентября 2024 года Хейс заявил, что биткоин «уйдет под $50 тыс. уже на этих выходных», и заявил об открытии шорт-позиции (на снижение цены). Тогда цена упала лишь до $52,5 тыс., а монета начала восходящее движение — уже в декабре цена биткоина впервые превысила $100 тыс.

В начале января 2025 года Хейс предсказал пик крипторынка в марте, но максимальная капитализация рынка криптовалют пришлась на 20 января, на день инаугурации Дональда Трампа. А к марту капитализация крипторынка оказалась примерно на 30% ниже пика в январе.

Уже в марте основатель BitMEX сделал ставку на то, что биткоин вырастет до $110 тыс. раньше, чем снова коснется $76,5 тыс. Но уже в апреле котировки опустились ниже $75 тыс., а прогнозируемые $110 тыс. так и не были достигнуты по данным Coinmarketcap на 14 мая.

Еще один несбывшийся прогноз к росту коснулся сразу нескольких токенов, включая BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO и NEURON. В начале января, в одном из очередных эссе, Хейс отметил перспективность этих токенов — с начала года все они потеряли от 28% до 89% в цене.

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