QCP Capital: К биткоину возвращается доверие инвесторов

investing.ruPublicado a 2025-04-21Actualizado a 2025-04-21

Приток средств в спотовые биткоин-ETF на прошлой неделе стал положительным. Фонды с 14 по 17 апреля получили дополнительно $15,85 млн, что резко контрастирует с оттоком капиталов, продолжавшимся с начала месяца.

Risk reversals — показатель настроений рынка, измеряющий разницу цен между опционами на рост и падение актива, — выровнялся, отклонившись от перекоса, доминировавшего последний месяц, отметили аналитики.

Выравнивание индикатора означает для биткоина, что трейдеры больше не ожидают резкого падения курса первой криптовалюты. Это указывает на рост оптимизма среди участников рынка, считают эксперты QCP Capital. По их мнению, если динамика сохранится, она может обеспечить дополнительный импульс для институциональных инвестиций в биткоин во втором квартале года.

Сейчас цена $88 000 остается ключевым уровень сопротивлением для актива. Пока биткоин не преодолеет его и не закрепится, говорить о начале нового бычьего тренда преждевременно, заявили аналитики. Синхронный рост биткоина и золота на фоне снижения фондовых рынков формирует новую картину. Если такой паттерн станет устойчивым, это может стать сигналом для более широкого «институционального принятия первой криптовалюты», пояснили эксперты.

Ранее специалисты QCP Capital сообщили, что изменение политики Федеральной резервной системы США (ФРС) и новые стимулирующие меры со стороны Китая и Европейского союза могут вызвать повышение курса биткоина после коррекции.

Читайте оригинальную статью на сайте Bits.media

Lecturas Relacionadas

BTC Market Pulse: Week 26

Bitcoin's market activity has cooled as it consolidates after a strong recovery. Spot trading volume has decreased, and order flow has shifted to net selling. While price momentum remains constructive, institutional demand has softened, evidenced by continued net outflows from US spot ETFs and lower on-chain transfer volumes. Derivatives markets show a cautious stance. Futures open interest is stable, but declining perpetual buying pressure and a rise in demand for downside protection indicate a more defensive trader posture. Beneath the surface, supply dynamics remain supportive. Supply is increasingly held by long-term holders, profitability is high, and realized gains are increasing. A slight rise in active short-term capital could lead to higher volatility. Overall, Bitcoin is range-bound. Fading momentum and moderated participation are balanced by resilient holder behavior, stable futures positioning, and healthy profitability, creating a foundation that awaits the next major market catalyst.

insights.glassnodeHace 4 hora(s)

insights.glassnodeHace 4 hora(s)

Infamous MEV Bot JaredFromSubway Drained For $7.5 Million

The notorious Ethereum MEV bot "JaredFromSubway" has been drained of approximately $7.5 million after attackers tricked its automated system. Security firm Blockaid reported that the bot was deceived into approving malicious trading routes by attacker-controlled contracts. These approvals were then used to siphon WETH, USDC, and USDT from the bot's contract. The incident is ironic as MEV bots are designed to exploit minute market advantages, but in this case, its own automation became the vulnerability. The attack specifically targeted the bot's trading logic, not the Ethereum protocol or a broader DeFi application. It underscores a critical risk in automated trading: the pursuit of speed can create fragility, making systems susceptible to carefully crafted traps. While the financial loss is significant, the broader impact is reputational for MEV infrastructure. It serves as a warning that automated systems granting token approvals require stringent safeguards, simulation, and route verification. The event is considered a targeted exploit on a trading bot, not a network-wide security issue.

bitcoinistHace 6 hora(s)

Infamous MEV Bot JaredFromSubway Drained For $7.5 Million

bitcoinistHace 6 hora(s)

Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

Morgan Stanley analyst Joshua Meyers' report (June 21, 2026) highlights key trends in the hardware and semiconductor sector ahead of Micron's earnings. The core takeaways are: 1. **Micron & Memory:** Memory remains a high-conviction long theme, driven by strong AI demand and rising ASPs. However, investor focus is shifting to the sustainability of Micron's >80% gross margins and the specifics of potential new long-term supply agreements (SCAs). 2. **Hardware Supply Chain:** AI-related demand for servers, networking, and storage remains robust, but company performance is diverging. Celestica (CLS) shows improved margin confidence, Western Digital and Seagate benefit from pricing, Fabrinet (FN) sees predictable AI optics growth, and Teradyne (TER) anticipates a new Google customer. 3. **AI Capex & WFE Forecasts:** JPMorgan increased its Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market growth forecasts to 28% in 2026 and 29% in 2027. AI infrastructure financing is evolving, with higher project-level debt reducing constraints on capex expansion. The report signals that while the AI-driven hardware cycle is strong, the market is entering a phase focused on execution verification (e.g., Micron's SCA details, Fabrinet's ramp with Amazon) and valuation sustainability. Key near-term signals include Micron's guidance, Arista Networks' outlook, and the pace of demand normalization post potential tariff-related pull-ins.

marsbitHace 7 hora(s)

Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

marsbitHace 7 hora(s)

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

Report Analysis: Federal Reserve's New Chair Debut – A New Captain, But the Same Script? Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth B. Carpenter analyzes the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a June 21 report. Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance on interest rates, aligning with his philosophy. However, market expectations for a rate hike this year were reinforced. Key signals lie elsewhere: inflation may fall more than expected, and quantitative tightening (QT) could be more aggressive than anticipated. The FOMC's "dot plot" suggests only one rate hike in 2026. Carpenter argues that if inflation undershoots forecasts, the logic for even a single hike weakens, especially as projections indicate potential rate cuts in 2027. On QT, Warsh's stance is clear. Carpenter notes that measures like halving the Treasury's account balance could shrink the Fed's balance sheet by around $500 billion with minimal market impact. Combined with adjustments to reserve interest and liquidity rules, the ultimate QT scale may exceed expectations, though its market effect might be less disruptive unless the Fed actively sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). While Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's policy framework, the 2% inflation target remains intact for now. The report concludes that the market may be overestimating the significance of reduced forward guidance and the near-term rate hike risk, while potentially underestimating the scope and manageable nature of the coming balance sheet reduction. The key debates will hinge on upcoming core PCE data, the specifics of the QT path, and the framework review's findings.

marsbitHace 7 hora(s)

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

marsbitHace 7 hora(s)

Critical Game Week: BTC Retracement Confirmation vs. HYPE Support Battle | Guest Analysis

This weekly analysis outlines a critical juncture for BTC and HYPE markets, focusing on key price level confirmations. **BTC Analysis:** BTC is at a pivotal point after a five-wave rally from the June 5th low of $59,100. The price has broken below a short-term rising channel's lower boundary, with the current move seen as a pullback to test this breakdown. Failure to reclaim this level could lead to a retest of the $59,000-$60,000 support zone. The core scenario hinges on this channel retest outcome. * **Key Levels:** Resistance at $64,500-$65,000 (channel boundary) and $69,500-$70,500. Support at $59,000-$60,000 and $55,000. * **Strategy:** A core bearish stance is maintained (20% short from last week), with short-term plans for tactical trades. Three detailed contingency plans (A/B/C) are provided for short positions on resistance tests or breakdowns, emphasizing strict stop-loss discipline. **HYPE Analysis:** HYPE shows strong momentum but is currently in a corrective phase after hitting a new high of $76.94. The price is retesting the crucial $64-$66 support area. * **Key Levels:** Resistance near $77 and $80-$82. Support at $64-$66 and $52-$54. * **Strategy:** The short-term approach is "buy on dips, avoid chasing rallies." A long position is considered only if clear stabilization signals appear at the $64-$66 or deeper $52-$54 support zones, with tight risk controls. **General Risk Management:** A standardized trailing stop-loss protocol is emphasized: set initial stop, breakeven at +1% profit, then trail stops upward to lock in gains. *Disclaimer: All analysis is presented as a personal trading framework, not investment advice. Market conditions are complex and require dynamic adjustment.*

marsbitHace 8 hora(s)

Critical Game Week: BTC Retracement Confirmation vs. HYPE Support Battle | Guest Analysis

marsbitHace 8 hora(s)

Trading

Spot

Futuros