Биткоин и золото: QCP Capital анализирует параллельное ралли защитных активов

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2025-01-21Actualizado a 2025-04-21

Биткоин стремительно восстановился, превысив отметку в $87 000 в ранние часы азиатской сессии. Этот резкий разворот позволил вернуть значительную часть потерь, вызванных неожиданным заявлением президента Трампа о «Дне освобождения» 2 апреля.

1-дневный график BTC/USDT. Источник: скринер криптовалют Cryptovizor

Однако биткоин был не одинок в своем росте. Золото также выросло до нового исторического максимума на фоне возобновившейся напряженности в торговых войнах и ослабления доллара США. С учетом того, что фондовые рынки завершили прошлую неделю в красной зоне, продолжая апрельское снижение, нарратив о биткоине как защитном активе или инструменте хеджирования инфляции снова набирает силу. Если эта динамика сохранится, она может обеспечить дополнительный импульс для институциональных инвестиций в биткоин.

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Возвращение институционального доверия

Уже наблюдаются ранние признаки восстановления институционального доверия. Потоки спотовых биткоин-ETF на прошлой неделе стали положительными с чистым притоком в $13,4 млн, что резко контрастирует с оттоком в $708 млн неделей ранее. На опционных рынках позиционирование стало более сбалансированным. Risk reversals по всем срокам выровнялись, отклоняясь от устойчивого ближнесрочного пут-перекоса, который доминировал в течение нескольких недель.

Движение средств в биткоин-ETF США. Источник: Farside Investors

Risk reversals — это показатель настроений рынка, измеряющий разницу цен между опционами на рост и падение актива. Выравнивание этого показателя для биткоина означает, что трейдеры больше не ожидают резкого падения цены, что указывает на рост оптимизма среди участников рынка после недель преобладающих негативных ожиданий.

Биткоин как защитный актив?

Было ли сегодняшнее параллельное ралли биткоина и золота просто праздничным шумом или это значимый сдвиг в восприятии биткоина как защитного актива? Последний вариант означал бы существенное изменение в том, как традиционные финансы рассматривают биткоин. Поскольку в Европе все еще праздники, рыночное подтверждение может занять еще несколько сессий. Корреляция между биткоином, золотом и акциями — это то, за чем стоит внимательно следить.

В отчете QCP Capital отмечается, что уровень $88,8 тыс. остается ключевым сопротивлением. Пока биткоин не преодолеет его уверенно, аналитики компании остаются осторожными в своих выводах.

Синхронный рост биткоина и золота на фоне снижения фондовых рынков формирует новую инвестиционную картину. Если такой паттерн закрепится, это может стать сигналом для более широкого институционального принятия первой криптовалюты как полноценного инструмента в портфеле.

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