Высокая инфляция сдерживает биткоин: рынки сомневаются в ФРС

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2024-09-28Actualizado a 2025-03-28

Данные впереди, но оптимизма нет

PCE за последний год

В пятницу США публикуют свежие данные по инфляции PCE — одному из ключевых индикаторов, за которым следит ФРС. Инвесторы внимательно смотрят на цифры, ведь они могут повлиять на решения по ставкам. А значит — и на курс Биткоин.

PCE (индекс потребительских расходов) отличается от CPI, но используется ФРС для оценки инфляционного давления. В январе показатель составлял 2,5% в годовом выражении — выше целевых 2%. Февраль, по прогнозам аналитиков, не принесет изменений.

Инфляция держится — а ФРС не торопится со ставками

Если инфляция снова окажется на уровне 2,5% — это сигнал. Цены остаются устойчивыми, а ставка, скорее всего, не снизится в ближайшее время.

Инструмент CME FedWatchPCE за последний год

По данным CME FedWatch, сейчас рынок оценивает вероятность понижения ставки в мае всего в 11,6%. В июне — уже 58,4%. Но и это пока не дает уверенности.

Торговая политика Трампа может усугубить ситуацию

Есть и другой фактор давления. Экономисты предупреждают: статистика еще не отражает эффект от тарифов Дональда Трампа.

Часть пошлин уже действует — на китайские товары. В планах — ввести 25% тариф на импорт автомобилей. Плюс ограничения на сталь и алюминий. Это может усилить инфляционное давление и отложить снижение ставки еще дальше.

Ритейлеры могут начать поднимать цены. Это может вызвать новый виток инфляции и затруднить снижение ставок. Даже председатель ФРС Джером Пауэлл признал, что последствия могут быть «переходными». Но в ФРС Сент-Луиса с этим не согласны:

«Косвенные эффекты могут оказаться более длительными».

Что это значит для рынка

Для криптовалют рынок ставок — один из ключевых факторов. И пока он не даёт поводов для оптимизма. Если инфляция останется высокой, а ставки — на текущем уровне, это будет сдерживать рост BTC.

По мнению BitMEX-сооснователя Артура Хейса, Bitcoin в ближайшее время может вырасти до $110 000. А если пробьет ATH, «мы не оглянемся до $250 000». Но он сам признает: его прогнозы не всегда сбываются.

Пока же BTC с трудом удерживается ниже $90 000 и идёт к худшему марту с 2020 года. На фондовом рынке царит неопределенность, которую подогревает нестабильная повестка Белого дома. И это сказывается на всех рисковых активах.

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