Альтсезон завершился? Доминация биткоина может достичь 71% перед новой волной роста

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2022-03-06Actualizado a 2025-02-06

Альткоины остаются под давлением: что ждет рынок дальше?

Популярный аналитик Rekt Capital считает, что альтсезон завершился в конце 2024 года, и прежде чем он вернется, доминация биткоина должна вырасти до 71%.

На этой неделе доля BTC на рынке достигла 64,3%, что стало максимумом за последние четыре года. Однако затем показатель снизился до 61%, что вызвало дискуссии среди трейдеров.

Многие инвесторы надеются, что альткоины вскоре начнут восстанавливаться. Но аналитик с псевдонимом Rekt Capital уверен, что для этого сначала доминация должна вырасти как минимум на 16% от текущих уровней.

Почему биткоин продолжает усиливать позиции?

BTC остается главным активом рынка, особенно на фоне макроэкономической неопределенности. Интерес к биткоину поддерживается:

  • Крупными покупками ETF
  • Ожиданиями понижения ставок ФРС
  • Возможным созданием BTC-резерва в США.

В таких условиях институциональные капиталы предпочитают вкладываться в BTC, оставляя альткоины без ликвидности.

Rekt Capital отмечает, что в декабре 2024 года биткоин-доминация сформировала дно на уровне 55%, что фактически стало концом альтсезона. С тех пор показатель вырос на 6%, и тренд пока остается в пользу BTC.

Когда альткоины вернутся в игру?

По мнению аналитиков если история повторится, новый альтсезон начнется только тогда, когда доминация биткоина достигнет 71% и оттолкнется от этого уровня.

Однако не все эксперты уверены, что BTC сможет забрать еще 16% рынка. Titan of Crypto считает, что текущее поведение графика доминации BTC указывает на вероятное пробуждение альткоинов. Он обращает внимание на свечную модель доджи «надгробие», которая редко встречается на графике BTC.D, но всегда говорит о резкой смене тренда.

Другие эксперты придерживаются нейтральной позиции. По мнению Stockmoney Lizards, альткоины пока проигрывают биткоину из-за притока капитала в BTC-ETF и ожиданий пост-халвинговой эйфории.

Однако они подчеркивают, что разворот ETH/BTC станет ключевым триггером для роста альткоинов. Пока эфир находится в многолетнем даунтренде к биткоину, что помогает BTC сохранять доминирующую позицию.

Читать далее: Ondo Finance токенизирует фондовый рынок США: акции и облигации теперь на блокчейне

Что дальше?

Ближайшие недели покажут, сможет ли Bitcoin продолжить рост доминации или рынок альткоинов начнет перехватывать инициативу. Пока ключевые уровни 64–71% по BTC.D остаются главными индикаторами для определения дальнейшего тренда.

Если история повторится, альтсезон вернется только после отката биткоин-доминации от 71%. До этого момента альткоины могут оставаться под давлением, а BTC продолжит удерживать ключевую ликвидность рынка.

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