CEO CryptoQuant спрогнозировал крах большинства альткоинов

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2024-04-10Actualizado a 2025-01-10

  • CEO CryptoQuant Ки Янг Джу заявил, что в ближайшем будущем на рынке останется только несколько альткоинов.
  • Остальных же ждет крах, поскольку в секторе нет притока капитала, а ликвидность циркулирует между позициями.

CEO компании CryptoQuant Ки Янг Джу заявил, что «выживут» только некоторые альткоины, тогда как остальных ждет крах. На это, по его словам, указывает отсутствие притока капитала в сектор.

Altcoin markets are currently a zero-sum PvP game.

While #Bitcoin has doubled its market cap, the alt market cap is still below its previous ATH, rotating among themselves without fresh capital inflows.

Only a few alts with strong use cases and narratives will survive. https://t.co/d5I0gyg14f pic.twitter.com/XArcEd9uKe

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) January 9, 2025

Янг Джу сравнил изменение капитализации биткоина и сектора альткоинов. Если в первом случае показатель, по его словам, удвоился с прошлого исторического максимума (ATH), то во втором ликвидность продолжает перетекать из одной позиции в другую без притока капитала.

Напомним, во время прошлого «бычьего» цикла, в октябре 2021 года, капитализация биткоина достигла $1,3 трлн. Ки Янг Джу утрирует в своем прогнозе, поскольку новый ATH зафиксирован на отметке $2,15 трлн, согласно TradingView.

То есть, прирост составляет 65,4%:

Изменение капитализации биткоина. Источник: TradingView.

Согласно метрике TradingView, общая капитализация сектора альткоинов, в свою очередь, на пике составляла $492,52 млрд. В начале декабря 2024 года, когда на рынке уже некоторое время продолжалось ралли, показатель достиг отметки $451,28 млрд.

Капитализация рынка криптоактивов за исключением десяти крупнейших позиций. Источник: TradingView.

Во втором случае метрика неточная, поскольку не учитывает капитализацию таких активов, как, например, XRP, Dogecoin и Solana, которые входят в топ-10, но относятся к альткоинам. Однако она отражает динамику в целом, которая совпадает с анализом Янга Джу.

По словам эксперта, текущее состояние этого сектора является антагонистической игрой (zero-sum game). Это термин из теории игр, при котором сумма выигрышей и проигрышей всех участников равна нулю.

«Лишь несколько альткоинов с сильными сценариями использования и нарративами выживут», — подчеркнул Янг Джу.

Он также ссылался на свой прошлый отчет касательно того, что следующей альтсезон будет «другим». Мы подробно освещали его ранее.

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