Аналитик спрогнозировал последствия форка биткоина от BlackRock

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2020-04-08Actualizado a 2025-01-08

Популярный криптоаналитик Bee опубликовал тревожный прогноз развития ситуации с потенциальным форком биткоина от BlackRock. Согласно представленному графику, такое событие может спровоцировать резкое падение курса первой криптовалюты.

Вот что произойдет с ценой биткоина. Источник: Bee

Гипотетический сценарий

Аналитик смоделировал ситуацию, в которой объявление о форке от BlackRock приводит к обвалу цены биткоина с отметки $116 000 до $60 000. Такое развитие событий может быть обусловлено несколькими факторами:

  • Неопределенность относительно того, какую версию сети поддержит большинство участников рынка — это может привести к массовому закрытию позиций и выводу средств в стейблкоины
  • Риск разделения майнинговых мощностей между двумя версиями биткоина, что существенно снизит безопасность обеих сетей
  • Возможная фрагментация ликвидности между оригинальным биткоином и его форком, которая неизбежно отразится на глубине рынка

Вопрос распределения сил

Ключевым фактором станет позиция майнеров. Они будут вынуждены выбирать между двумя версиями сети, учитывая:

  • Потенциальную прибыльность майнинга в каждой из версий — это включает не только текущую цену монеты, но и перспективы ее роста
  • Поддержку со стороны крупных институциональных игроков, которые могут обеспечить долгосрочный спрос на выбранную версию
  • Техническую сложность перехода на новую версию протокола и связанные с этим расходы на модернизацию оборудования

Позиция BlackRock

В документации биткоин-ETF компания четко обозначила свое право самостоятельно определять «правильную» версию биткоина в случае форка. При этом BlackRock подчеркивает, что будет принимать решение на основе множества факторов:

  • Позиция ключевых разработчиков и степень поддержки обновлений со стороны сообщества
  • Распределение вычислительной мощности между версиями сети
  • Уровень принятия каждой версии биржами, кастодианами и другими сервис-провайдерами
  • Общее направление развития экосистемы и технологические перспективы каждой версии
Фрагмент документации биткоин-ETF от BlackRock. Источник: Bee

Уроки прошлых форков

История биткоина уже знает несколько попыток изменить базовые параметры сети. В 2016-2017 годах во время «Войны за размер блока» даже поддержка 95% майнеров не смогла навязать изменения протоколу. Сообщество разделилось: одна группа выступала за увеличение размера блока, другая — за развитие решений второго уровня.

Результатом стало появление Bitcoin Cash, а позже и Bitcoin SV — форка от форка, продвигающего еще более радикальное увеличение размера блока. Оба проекта сформировали отдельные экосистемы, но так и не смогли превзойти оригинальный биткоин по популярности и рыночной капитализации.

Однако текущая ситуация принципиально отличается от предыдущих форков. BlackRock, чей биткоин-ETF уже достиг капитализации в $50 млрд на фоне роста биткоина выше $100 000, обладает беспрецедентным влиянием на рынок.

Намеки на направление форка

Недавно BlackRock выпустила трехминутное образовательное видео о биткоине, где между делом указала на возможность пересмотра 21-миллионного лимита эмиссии. Это вызвало бурную реакцию сообщества:

  • Директор по маркетингу Dashpay Джоэл Валенсуэла (Joel Valenzuela) иронично предсказал, что увеличение лимита предложения позже объявят «частью изначального плана»
  • Разработчик BitVM под ником Super Testnet сравнил подобные изменения с превращением биткоина в очередной PayPal
  • Председатель MicroStrategy Майкл Сейлор (Michael Saylor) неожиданно активно распространял это видео

Идея изменения 21-миллионного лимита противоречит базовым принципам биткоина, заложенным Сатоши Накамото (Satoshi Nakamoto). Однако теперь у BlackRock есть реальные рычаги влияния на рынок, и компания может попытаться изменить эти принципы через механизм форка.

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