Polymarket 疑交易量与链上数据不符，“洗盘交易”注水有多严重？

链捕手Publicado a 2024-10-31Actualizado a 2024-10-31

原标题：《Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket gives Trump a 67% chance of winning but is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say》

作者：Fortune

编译：Felix, PANews

预测市场 Polymarket 在 2024 年美国大选期间爆红，该平台报告称，押注特朗普或哈里斯谁会在11月初当选总统的注金已达27亿美元。

尽管 Polymarket 的赔率已在社交媒体和主流媒体上被广泛传播，但两家加密研究公司的分析师发现，Polymarket 上却存在猖獗的洗盘交易。值得一提的是，Polymarket 平台显示，特朗普目前获胜几率为 67%。

在由区块链公司 Chaos Labs 和 Inca Digital 分别完成的独立调查中，分析师发现 Polymarket 平台存在洗盘交易的迹象。洗盘交易是一种市场操纵形式，即股票被同时反复买卖，以制造交易量和交易活动繁荣的假象。 Chaos Labs 报告称，Polymarket 总统大选市场交易量中洗盘交易约占三分之一，而 Inca Digital 则发现，市场上“很大一部分交易量”可能归因于潜在的洗盘交易。

自去年 9 月法院的一项关键裁决使选举投注合法化以来，包括 Kalshi 和 Robinhood 在内的其他预测市场相继在美国推出。尽管美国投资者仍无法访问Polymarket，但 Polymarket 仍然是迄今为止最大的预测平台（部分原因是其加密原生设计和离岸运营）。在距离选举日不到一周的时间里，Polymarket上的可疑活动引发了人们对该网站准确性的质疑，其26岁的创始人Shayne Coplan曾宣称，该网站可以“揭开现实世界中对你最重要的事件的神秘面纱”。

Polymarket的一位发言人声明：“Polymarket的使用条款明确禁止操纵市场”。“我们努力为用户提供尽可能公平的分析，我们的透明度如何由市场来决定。”

预测市场的崛起

Polymarket 成立于 2020 年，得到了 Peter Thiel 的 Founders Fund 等风投的支持，曾试图在美国推出选举博彩，但于 2022 年初被美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）强制要求离岸运营。

与Kalshi等竞争对手不同，Kalshi最近在针对CFTC的诉讼中胜诉，获准在美国开展业务，Polymarket在以太坊区块链上运行其平台。Polymarket创始人Shayne Coplan表示，加密元素为其投注活动提供了更大的可见性。“Polymarket 的巧妙之处在于完全是点对点和透明的。

在最近的总统大选期间，Polymarket 平台的投注量激增，《华尔街日报》到《财富》等媒体都报道了其平台上的投注赔率，民意调查等更将其平台数据作为指标。美国民意调查明星 Nate Silver 还于 7 月加入 Polymarket 担任顾问。

Polymarket 的加密设计和离岸运营引起了其他方面的审查。其中包括最近有报道称该网站存在操纵交易行为。最引人注目的是据称一名法国交易员导致特朗普的赔率飙升。Polymarket 坚称该用户拥有“丰富的交易经验”，并没有恶意行事。

洗盘交易

洗盘交易的证据似乎是该平台存在不当行为的“实锤”。为了进行分析，Chaos Labs 查看了链上数据以剔除高交易量交易者，过滤掉可能从事做市等正常活动的用户。然后筛选出存在虚假交易迹象的用户，检查他们的买卖订单比率，并将他们的持股量与交易量进行比较。Chaos Labs 得出的结论是，仅在总统预测上，大约三分之一的交易量可能属于虚假交易，所有市场也是如此。

洗盘交易的做法在加密应用程序中很常见，尤其是那些有可能在未来发行代币和空投的应用程序中。9 月，《The Information》报道称，Polymarket 已在探索推出自己的专有代币。

Chaos Labs 创始人 Omer Goldberg 表示：“预测市场所面临的挑战与其他任何有市场的应用程序没什么不同”。 “虚假交易并非 Polymarket 特有。”

交易量

Chaos Labs 和 Inca Digital 还都发现了 Polymarket 的另一项异常：Polymarket 网站上以美元报告的总统市场交易量与链上数据不符。Inca 发现总统博彩市场的实际交易量约为 17.5 亿美元，而 Polymarket 报告的数据为 27 亿美元。

Chaos Labs 将此归因于 Polymarket 将交易份额与美元混为一谈。确切的说，用户可以以不同的赔率购买候选人的份额。鉴于克林顿当选的可能性极小，“赞成”的每份份额仅为0.01美元，但 Chaos Labs 发现 Polymarket将这一份额报告为1美元的交易量。

这种差异以及虚假交易凸显了该平台未经审核的性质，而许多人依赖该平台来获取有关总统选举的信息。

Chaos Labs 创始人 Omer Goldberg 表示：“ Polymarket 等公司希望吸引真正的用户并建立对其市场的信任”。“识别和减少虚假交易对于确保预测市场代表所有人至关重要，市场价格和交易量由真实、长久的用户群决定，而不是被虚假交易流量所混淆。”

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