SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919):FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-09-19Actualizado a 2024-09-19

Resumen

Powell主席以50个基点的降息满足了风险市场的期望,但对于这次选择较大幅度的降息,他同时也充满信心地强调经济软著陆仍然是基本情况,并多次重申美国经济表现“相当不错”...

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919):FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

Powell 主席以 50 个基点的降息满足了风险市场的期望,但对于这次选择较大幅度的降息,他同时也充满信心地强调经济软著陆仍然是基本情况,并多次重申美国经济表现“相当不错”。

重点摘要:

  • 随著通胀下降,软著陆仍然是基本预期。“美国经济状况良好,我们今天的决策是为了保持这样的局面。”“美国经济基本上没问题。”“我相信通胀会降至 2% 。”

  • 保持领先。Powell 承诺在利率调整上“保持领先”,以应对就业市场的放缓,并特别关注招聘率(50 个基点的降息是我们不落后于形势的承诺)。美联储将 2024 年的失业率预期上调至 4.4% (之前为 4.0% ), 2025 年上调至 4.2% (之前为 4.0% ), 2026 年则上调至 4.3% (之前为 4.1% )。

  • 50 个基点的变动旨在传达“强有力的举措”。 Powell 承认 50 个基点的调整是较强力的举措,但他也表示未来不一定会以同样的步伐推进(“我们不应该假设这是新常态”),给美联储未来的会议留下回旋的空间。基本上,不要预期一直会是 50 个基点的调整,也不要预期 75 个基点的降息,但如果经济数据证明有必要,美联储也可能会进行多次 50 个基点的调整(“我们总是会在当下做我们认为对经济有利的事情,今天的决策也是如此。”)。

  • 关键在于硬数据。美联储将专注于硬经济数据而非软情绪数据,将特别关注市场对较低利率的反应。

  • 我们立场一致。 Powell 指出,所有 19 名成员都同意今年应多次降息,其中 17 名成员认为会进行 3 次完整降息, 2 名成员则认为将有 4 次,这与 6 月的情况有“显著不同”,唯一的异议者是 Bowman,他这次支持仅降息 25 个基点。

市场反应:

  • 利率: 市场仍然预计 2024 年会再有 2.5 次降息,略领先于美联储的点阵图中位数。债券收益率在 FOMC 会议后几乎没有变动,因为结果基本符合预期。

  • 外汇: 美联储的决策导致美元走弱,特别是考虑到日本央行在即将召开的会议上可能会保持鹰派立场,美元相对于日圆疲软。

  • 股票: 美联储实施“强有力”的宽松政策,并表示经济状况仍然良好且通胀预计会下降,促使股市上涨。

  • 加密货币: 受益于股市强势走高,BTC 回升至 60 k 美元,altcoins 也表现强劲,显示整体风险情绪有所提升。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919):FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919):FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919):FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919):FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240919):FOMC会议重点摘要—Confidently Dovish

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