预测市场才是Al+Web3的用武之地

区块律动Publicado a 2018-09-24Actualizado a 2024-09-18

Lecturas Relacionadas

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

The article investigates whether blindly betting on NBA teams with higher pre-game win probabilities on Polymarket guarantees profits. Backtesting data from the 2025-26 regular season (1,096 games) shows that a strategy of consistently betting $100 on the team with the higher pre-game probability resulted in a net loss of $2,054 (ROI: -1.87%), indicating that the market is efficient and prices are accurately set. Further analysis reveals that returns varied significantly by team. Certain teams, such as the Trail Blazers (POR, 19% ROI), 76ers (PHI, 14%), Spurs (SAS, 12%), Lakers (LAL, 11%), and Hornets (CHA, 9%), consistently outperformed market expectations when favored. In contrast, top-performing teams like the Celtics, Knicks, and Nugks had ROIs close to zero or negative, showing their probabilities were efficiently priced. The weakest teams showed extreme ROI variations but had insufficient sample sizes for reliable conclusions. The key takeaway is that blindly following pre-game probabilities is not a profitable strategy overall, but targeting specific teams may yield better results.

marsbitHace 21 min(s)

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

**Can You Consistently Profit by Blindly Following Pre-Game Win Probabilities on Polymarket for NBA Games?** A backtest of the entire NBA 2025-26 regular season (1,096 games) was conducted to test the strategy of always betting $100 on the team with the higher pre-game win probability on Polymarket. The results show that this strategy is not profitable. The total amount wagered was $109,600, with a return of $107,545.20, resulting in a net loss of $2,054 and a Return on Investment (ROI) of -1.87%. This indicates that the market is highly efficient, and pre-game probabilities are accurately priced, leaving no simple arbitrage opportunity. In fact, blindly following the market would have been slightly less profitable than betting against it. However, a deeper analysis by team revealed significant differences. Certain teams consistently outperformed market expectations when they were favored to win: * Portland Trail Blazers (POR): 19% ROI * Philadelphia 76ers (PHI): 14% ROI * San Antonio Spurs (SAS): 12% ROI * Los Angeles Lakers (LAL): 11% ROI * Charlotte Hornets (CHA): 9% ROI In contrast, the market was highly efficient for the top-performing teams, offering minimal returns (e.g., Boston Celtics ROI: 4%, Denver Nuggets ROI: -5%). Results for the weakest teams were too inconsistent due to small sample sizes. The key finding is that team-specific factors, rather than the probability percentage itself, drive potential value, making a one-size-fits-all strategy ineffective.

Odaily星球日报Hace 25 min(s)

Are Altcoins Soaring? Is the Bull Market Back?

Recent days have seen significant volatility in altcoins while Bitcoin remained relatively stable. Some low-market-cap tokens, with circulations under $20 million, surged by several hundred percent within days—without fundamental improvements, ecosystem breakthroughs, or new institutional inflows. This is not a true altseason. The Altseason Index stands at 34, and Bitcoin dominance is at 58.5%, indicating the market is still in a "Bitcoin season." The altcoin market cap has shrunk by ~40% since its peak in December 2024, falling to around $700 billion. This severe decline has made it cheaper for large holders to accumulate significant portions of circulating supply, enabling price manipulation. A case in point is SIREN, where a single entity allegedly controlled up to 88% of the circulating supply. Such concentration allows a small group to dictate price movements. Additionally, deeply negative funding rates (as low as -0.3% every 8 hours, annualized to -328%) force short sellers to pay high fees, accelerating liquidations and further fueling upward price spikes. On-chain activity, like a 97% weekly increase in BSC DEX volume, suggests excitement, but it is largely driven by existing capital, not new inflows. Institutional flows into altcoin ETFs (like those for Solana and XRP) have been weak or negative, indicating caution rather than rotation into altcoins. This rally is a signal of structural fragility, not broad bullish momentum. Until Bitcoin dominance falls significantly and new capital enters the altcoin space, these pumps are echoes of manipulation—not the return of a true bull market.

marsbitHace 59 min(s)

Are Altcoins Soaring? Is the Bull Market Back?

marsbitHace 59 min(s)

Rhythm X Zhihu Event Agenda Released: Skills Demo + Keynote Speech + Roundtable to Thoroughly Explain Agents and On-Chain Finance

The recent dispute between EvoMap and Hermes over alleged抄袭, similar to the Claude and OpenClaw case, highlights a growing trend in the Agent ecosystem. These conflicts arise from competition over user choice—specifically, which Agent users select for similar tasks—and the definition of original core competencies. Such public disagreements indicate that competition among Agents has intensified to the point where founders are losing their composure. Ultimately, users hold the decision-making power. This issue foreshadows a broader challenge: as Agents become more numerous and capable, how should individuals navigate this evolving landscape? This topic will be explored in-depth at the upcoming event.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Rhythm X Zhihu Event Agenda Released: Skills Demo + Keynote Speech + Roundtable to Thoroughly Explain Agents and On-Chain Finance

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Fortune Exclusive: a16z Crypto Fund AUM Plummets 40%, Multicoin Halved, Top Crypto VCs Shrink Collectively

According to exclusive SEC filings obtained by Fortune, leading crypto venture capital firms, including a16z crypto, Multicoin Capital, Pantera Capital, and Paradigm, experienced significant declines in their assets under management (AUM) in 2025. a16z crypto's AUM dropped nearly 40% to $9.5 billion, partly due to strategic distributions to LPs at market highs, with its first fund achieving a 5.4x DPI. Multicoin’s AUM was halved to approximately $2.7 billion, impacted by market volatility and crypto price corrections. Pantera also saw AUM shrink, though this was partly attributed to successful exits, including five portfolio company IPOs. In contrast, Haun Ventures grew its AUM by over 30% to nearly $2.5 billion, driven by a successful exit in the stablecoin sector and new fundraising. Despite the downturn, several firms are raising new funds, with a16z targeting up to $2 billion and Paradigm seeking up to $1.5 billion, indicating continued long-term confidence in the crypto market's cyclical nature.

marsbitHace 1 hora(s)

Fortune Exclusive: a16z Crypto Fund AUM Plummets 40%, Multicoin Halved, Top Crypto VCs Shrink Collectively

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Cómo comprar AL

¡Bienvenido a HTX.com! Hemos hecho que comprar Archloot (AL) sea simple y conveniente. Sigue nuestra guía paso a paso para iniciar tu viaje de criptos.Paso 1: crea tu cuenta HTXUtiliza tu correo electrónico o número de teléfono para registrarte y obtener una cuenta gratuita en HTX. Experimenta un proceso de registro sin complicaciones y desbloquea todas las funciones.Obtener mi cuentaPaso 2: ve a Comprar cripto y elige tu método de pagoTarjeta de crédito/débito: usa tu Visa o Mastercard para comprar Archloot (AL) al instante.Saldo: utiliza fondos del saldo de tu cuenta HTX para tradear sin problemas.Terceros: hemos agregado métodos de pago populares como Google Pay y Apple Pay para mejorar la comodidad.P2P: tradear directamente con otros usuarios en HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): ofrecemos servicios personalizados y tipos de cambio competitivos para los traders.Paso 3: guarda tu Archloot (AL)Después de comprar tu Archloot (AL), guárdalo en tu cuenta HTX. Alternativamente, puedes enviarlo a otro lugar mediante transferencia blockchain o utilizarlo para tradear otras criptomonedas.Paso 4: tradear Archloot (AL)Tradear fácilmente con Archloot (AL) en HTX's mercado spot. Simplemente accede a tu cuenta, selecciona tu par de trading, ejecuta tus trades y monitorea en tiempo real. Ofrecemos una experiencia fácil de usar tanto para principiantes como para traders experimentados.

222 Vistas totalesPublicado en 2024.12.11Actualizado en 2025.03.21

Discusiones

Bienvenido a la comunidad de HTX. Aquí puedes mantenerte informado sobre los últimos desarrollos de la plataforma y acceder a análisis profesionales del mercado. A continuación se presentan las opiniones de los usuarios sobre el precio de AL (AL).