Notcoin не может прорвать трехмесячный нисходящий тренд

cryptonews.ruPublicado a 2022-04-02Actualizado a 2024-09-02

Цена Notcoin (NOT) пытается восстановиться, но это может оказаться непростой задачей из-за все еще слегка медвежьего настроя рынка

Рост цены Notcoin (NOT), популярного токена экосистемы «Телеграм», может столкнуться с препятствием в виде увеличения числа краткосрочных держателей.

Notcoin беззащитен перед медведями

Notcoin — игровой Web3-проект на базе сети TON, появившийся в январе этого года в виде мини-приложения в «Телеграме». С мая NOT стал доступен на многих крупных биржах. Однако сейчас основную угрозу для него представляют краткосрочные держатели (STH). Они контролируют 46% оборотного предложения актива и обычно держат монеты меньше месяца. Это потенциально чревато распродажами.

Доминирование STH на рынке NOT усилилось после 22 августа, когда среднесрочные ходлеры (MTH) начали продавать из-за новостей о задержании Павла Дурова. В течение 48 часов более 21 млрд токенов на сумму свыше $176 млн перешли от среднесрочных к краткосрочным держателям, увеличив их долю.

Среднесрочные инвесторы, которые держат актив от одного до 12 месяцев, по-прежнему являются опорой для Notcoin Они контролируют 53% предложения. Однако теперь краткосрочные держатели стали представлять значительную угрозу.

Распределение предложения Notcoin. Источник: IntoTheBlock

Между тем индикатор схождения/расхождения скользящих средних (MACD) показывает, что медвежий импульс цены начинает ослабевать. Продажи постепенно уменьшаются, что является добрым знаком для криптовалюты. Однако это не гарантирует ей скорый переход к бычьему тренду.

Для такого разворота токену потребуется сильная поддержка рынка. К сожалению, текущие рыночные условия не способствуют такому изменению. Без активного интереса к покупке или катализатора, который стимулировал бы спрос, шансы на бычий прорыв остаются невысокими.

Читайте также мнение: Toncoin (TON) превзойдет общий рынок в сентябре

MACD. Источник: TradingView

Прогноз NOT: чистый прорыв маловероятен

Notcoin застрял под линией нисходящего тренда, которая сформировалась еще в июне. За последние три месяца NOT неоднократно пытался преодолеть эту линию и начать восстановление.

Однако каждая из попыток заканчивалась неудачей, причем в последний раз это произошло из-за ареста Дурова. Учитывая текущие условия, появления бычьих сигналов придется подождать еще какое-то время. В результате цена, вероятнее всего, будет оставаться в боковике в пределах $0,0094-$0,0076.

Анализ цены Notcoin. Источник: TradingView

Падение ниже $0,0076 может отправить токен в направлении исторического минимума $0,0045. Однако если бычьи сигналы появятся раньше, чем ожидается, NOT может превратить уровень $0,0094 в основание и начать восстановление. Любой из этих сценариев поможет цене выйти из текущей фазы консолидации.

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