市场波动下的 DeFi 众生相：一波万波

foresightnewsPublicado a 2024-08-06Actualizado a 2024-08-13

Resumen

「一石激起千层浪」的市场，以不变应万变

波涛汹涌的链上，DeFi 正直接迎战。


撰文：Pzai，Foresight News


昨日，随着全球市场经历巨大震荡，加密市场也没能独善其身。而在链上，仅以太坊生态上就创下单日清算超 3.5 亿美元的记录。市场的「一波」正在激发 DeFi 的「万波」，而 DeFi 项目是如何应对的？海啸退去之时又是谁在裸泳？故笔者撰写本文对 DeFi 在市场波动下的表现进行总结。


稳定币


在 Ethena 方面，昨日其稳定币 USDe 创下单日流出 9580 万美元的记录，总供应量也从巅峰时期的 36 亿枚回落至 31 亿枚左右。由于 Ethena 的机制导致多头头寸必须保持在较高水平，随着市场的下跌，抵押物的潜在清算导致用户需要控制风险，继而赎回相关代币。



另外 Blast 上稳定币 USDB 在昨日短时脱锚至最低 0.937 美元。由于 Blast 的稳定币生态相对封闭，且 Blast 链启动初期项目方对 USDB 的激励较大，导致市场波动时资金流出的影响较大。现在 USDB 已经基本回锚。



借贷协议


就清算情况而言，8 月 5 日的清算情况最为严重，整体规模超过 3.5 亿美元。按协议分配来看，Aave V3 的清算额最大，达到 2.5 亿美元。其次是 Compound 清算，总清算额达 7960 万美元。在 Aave V3 的清算中，主要集中于以太坊的大类资产清算，前三名分别为 WETH、wstETH 和 WBTC。



在市场波动中，Aave 也获得了超过 600 万美元的收入。



清算完成后，链上整体的清算线已经低于 2000 美元。在清算中，由于机制特性，在市场波动较大时容易出现坏账，如 Aave V3 近七天内共产生了 35 万美元的坏账。相比之下，Curve Llamalend 因为其软清算机制避免了大部分硬清算，其中软清算在 8 月 5 日承担了 5024 万美元的清算份额。



整体而言，借贷协议对本次市场波动的应对还算差强人意。


去中心化交易所（DEX）


在 Uniswap V3 中，8 月 5 日达到最高峰值 8.4 亿美元，并为 LP 产生了 111.9 万美元的费用。



GMX 方面，8 月 5 日当天，持有头寸较前日下降了 30% 左右，并清算了 830 万美元的资产，主要以 USDC 为主。



再质押


再质押资产作为现今以太坊的核心资产之一，市场波动下的流出也比较显著。例如 Renzo 的质押通证 ezETH 最低脱锚至 0.876 WETH 点位。



协议流出上，以 ether.fi 为例，8 月 5 日全天就提现了 79013 枚 ETH，总价值超过 1 亿美元，其中大部分是 Eigenlayer 的 eETH 提现。凭借着超过 7.7 万枚 ETH 的流动性和 73% 以上的 DeFi 利用率，协议不存在整体上的挤兑风险。



整体而言，Lido stETH 提现队列没有大幅增长的态势，且链上主要的 LST 一直保持稳定。所以整体上再质押生态没有系统性风险。


References：

https://parsec.fi/layout/cryptoian/_N33MkeM

https://community.chaoslabs.xyz/aave/risk/liquidations

https://dune.com/ether_fi/etherfi

https://dune.com/hildobby/ethena

Lecturas Relacionadas

Bernstein Research Report Analysis: HBM Prices Must Double Next Year, Memory Becomes a Burden for AI

Bernstein's report indicates that High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) prices must double (increase 2-2.5x) in 2027. This is because, while standard DRAM prices have surged approximately 4.5x, HBM prices remain locked in annual contracts, making standard DRAM significantly more profitable per wafer for memory makers (2x the revenue, nearly 3x the gross profit). To maintain capacity allocation for HBM, its price must rise sharply. A critical consequence is that HBM is sold packaged within Nvidia GPUs. To protect its 75% gross margin, Nvidia is likely to pass on HBM cost increases by raising GPU/system prices by about 4x the HBM cost hike. Combined with standard DRAM and NAND price increases, this could raise total AI capital expenditure for cloud providers by around 30%. The report maintains Outperform ratings on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, significantly raising price targets due to expected upward earnings revisions. KIOXIA is the main loser, having no HBM exposure. MediaTek could benefit if cloud providers seek more ASIC-based alternatives to avoid Nvidia's markup. Valuations have shifted to a P/E basis, reflecting record-high profitability and cash generation expected in this cycle.

marsbitHace 9 min(s)

Bernstein Research Report Analysis: HBM Prices Must Double Next Year, Memory Becomes a Burden for AI

marsbitHace 9 min(s)

The 'Crisis Helmsman' of Financial Markets Passes Away: Reflecting on Greenspan's Federal Reserve Career

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, known as the 'crisis helmsman' of financial markets, has passed away at 100. His nearly 19-year tenure spanned four presidencies, from the 1987 stock market crash to the internet boom. Initially hailed as the 'Maestro' for his crisis management—famously intervening after Black Monday and during the LTCM collapse—his legacy became intertwined with the 2008 financial crisis. His market-friendly philosophy and the "Greenspan Put," an expectation of Fed support during downturns, were praised for fostering stability and growth in the 1990s but later criticized for encouraging excessive risk-taking and contributing to the housing bubble. Greenspan's career encapsulates the central debate of his era: whether markets can self-correct and if central banks should actively deflate asset bubbles. His passing reignites questions about the fine line between stabilizing markets and inadvertently sowing the seeds for the next crisis.

marsbitHace 13 min(s)

The 'Crisis Helmsman' of Financial Markets Passes Away: Reflecting on Greenspan's Federal Reserve Career

marsbitHace 13 min(s)

Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

Title: Two Giants "Credit" Surge: Loan Balances of 99 Billion vs. 146 Billion USD, Brazil Emerges as Main Battlefield Summary: The article compares the rapid expansion of credit businesses by two major e-commerce and fintech players, Sea (via Monee) and Mercado Libre (via Mercado Pago), in overseas markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America, contrasting with a slowing domestic Chinese credit market. Using Q1 2026 financial data, it highlights their significant growth. Sea's Monee reached a loan balance of $99 billion, up 71% year-over-year (YoY), contributing 17.5% to Sea's total revenue. Mercado Pago's loan balance hit $146 billion, up 87% YoY, contributing 45% to its parent company's revenue. Both maintained stable risk metrics (e.g., Monee's 90+ day NPL at 1.1%) despite rapid scaling. Brazil is identified as a key and accelerating growth market for both. Sea's Brazilian operations saw loan volumes exceed $10 billion, growing 250% YoY, with SPayLater GMV penetration still low (~10%) indicating high potential. Sea also secured a key Brazilian financial credit license (SCFI). Mercado Libre's Brazil segment contributed over half (54%) of total group revenue, with its credit business there generating $11.24 billion in revenue, up 89% YoY and accounting for 12.7% of global revenue. Mercado Pago's credit portfolio, especially credit cards (46% of loans, +105% YoY), is a strategic focus, described as crucial as building logistics was a decade ago. Its net interest margin after loss (NIMAL) remains high at 17.8%. The article concludes that while Brazil presents immense opportunities, the success is largely driven by these integrated "e-commerce + fintech" giants with proprietary transaction data and ecosystems, making it challenging for standalone fintech players to compete effectively.

链捕手Hace 18 min(s)

Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

链捕手Hace 18 min(s)

Research Report Analysis: Is Intel Making a Comeback with Apple? Bernstein's Calculations Show the Right Direction, but the Price Is Already Overvalued

Bernstein analyst Stacy A. Rasgon published a report on June 18 regarding Intel, assessing the potential impact of recent political support for a US-based PC chip design and manufacturing collaboration between Apple and Intel. The report views this as a significant signal for the foundry landscape shift but concludes the initial financial contribution would be minimal. Key conclusions: 1) An Apple deal is seen as a small-scale "proof of concept." Even if Intel wins 40% of Apple's premium notebook chip orders (~5 million units/year), Bernstein estimates it would generate only about $500M in annual revenue and ~$0.03 EPS, negligible against Intel's ~$55B revenue. 2) Political encouragement is not equivalent to enforceable mandates. Winning orders ultimately depends on Intel demonstrating competitive technology (like its 18A node), cost, and reliable supply. 3) The path from validation to large-scale production involves significant challenges, capital investment, and time. Due to these uncertainties, Bernstein maintains a Market-Perform (Hold) rating with a $100 price target, implying potential downside from the ~$121.10 price at the report date. The analysis highlights the tension between near-term validation value—serving as a crucial trust signal for Intel's foundry ambitions and US supply chain resilience—and the long-term opportunity to attract larger cloud and AI chip customers. The investment thesis hinges on successful 18A execution and sustained policy support, not on immediate financial gains from Apple.

marsbitHace 42 min(s)

Research Report Analysis: Is Intel Making a Comeback with Apple? Bernstein's Calculations Show the Right Direction, but the Price Is Already Overvalued

marsbitHace 42 min(s)

27-Year Reign Ends: SK Hynix Market Cap Surpasses Samsung for First Time, an AI-Driven Reshuffle of Korean Chip Power

On June 22, 2026, SK Hynix made history by surpassing Samsung Electronics in market capitalization, ending Samsung's 27-year reign as South Korea's most valuable company. This dramatic reversal is powered by the AI boom and SK Hynix's dominant position in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), a critical component for AI model training. Once a heavily indebted firm on the brink of bankruptcy, SK Hynix bet early on HBM, which has evolved from a niche product to essential AI infrastructure. It now commands a 59% share of the global HBM market. Its financial performance is staggering, with Q1 2026 net profit soaring nearly fourfold year-over-year to KRW 40.35 trillion, translating to over 2 billion RMB in daily net profit. HBM now drives roughly 40% of its revenue with exceptionally high margins. In contrast, Samsung, with its broad portfolio spanning memory chips, smartphones, and foundry services, has lagged in the HBM race while facing headwinds in other divisions. This shift signifies a deeper restructuring of South Korea's economy, moving from consumer electronics to AI-driven growth. However, the future remains competitive. With major capacity expansions planned industry-wide by 2028 and Samsung aiming to catch up in HBM technology, the new market leader cannot afford complacency. This event marks a pivotal moment in the global semiconductor industry's ongoing power realignment.

marsbitHace 53 min(s)

27-Year Reign Ends: SK Hynix Market Cap Surpasses Samsung for First Time, an AI-Driven Reshuffle of Korean Chip Power

marsbitHace 53 min(s)

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片