Glassnode: Bitcoin Recovery Continues, But This Key Signal is Missing!
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin's recovery continues but lacks a key signal. While the price has stabilized around $65,000 after rebounding from June lows near $58,000, the firm characterizes the market outlook as a "transitional recovery."
Despite stable prices below $66,000 and a return to neutral momentum, overall exchange trading volume remains low. Analysts note this divergence suggests a gradual demand increase rather than widespread speculative frenzy. In derivatives markets, perp futures buying activity has surged, yet open interest and funding rates remain moderate, indicating controlled leverage. Options market skew has narrowed, showing reduced demand for downside protection.
A key positive signal is robust institutional demand, with regulated Bitcoin investment products seeing significant net inflows. Blockchain data also shows an increase in "hot capital" and a rising ratio of short-term to long-term holder supply, signaling price-sensitive capital is re-entering the market.
However, key on-chain metrics have not recovered. Active addresses, blockchain transaction volume, and fee revenue remain near lower statistical bounds, indicating low organic network demand and a lack of urgency among investors. Overall network profitability has seen only minor improvement, with realized losses still exceeding profits.
Glassnode concludes that while institutional inflows, spot/futures demand, and reduced defensive positioning are positive, low spot liquidity and weak on-chain activity indicate the recovery hasn't yet broadened into a full bull phase. A sustained break above $66,000 is seen as a critical level to watch for confirming a stronger upward trend.
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