本轮牛市用哑铃策略能赚钱吗？

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-07-28Actualizado a 2024-07-28

Resumen

既能赚到大钱，又能避免血本无归的神奇策略。

原文作者：Biteye 核心贡献者 Viee

原文编辑：Biteye 核心贡献者 Crush

本轮牛市用哑铃策略能赚钱吗？

今天给大家分享一个既能赚到大钱，又能避免血本无归的策略：哑铃策略。

通过指标分析了以下加密资产的表现：

  • BTC 永远的王者：BTC.D 指数

  • ETH 在本阶段落后于 BTC：ETH/BTC 汇率

  • 山寨总体萎靡：( 1) Altseason 指数 ( 2) 山寨币市值

  • Meme 币高风险高收益，跑赢 BTC、ETH：Memecoin 指数

一、什么是哑铃策略？

哑铃策略是塔勒布在《反脆弱》提到的，在⼀个领域采取保守策略，在另⼀个领域选择开放策略，放弃中间路线。简单说就是，“大部分保守，小部分激进”。

本轮牛市用哑铃策略能赚钱吗？

运用在币圈，可以把大部分资产投入 BTC 和 ETH 等安全性比较好的资产中，少部分资金投入到 Meme 币这样的高风险资产中，中间的大部分山寨币尽量少参与。

这样既可以在币圈高波动性中保本保持稳定性，同时有机会通过高风险资产（比如 Meme 币）获得高回报。

接下来，通过一些指标，我们来客观看下 BTC、ETH、大部分山寨币、Meme 币各自表现如何？

二、BTC 永远的王者：参考 BTC.D 指数 ( Bitcoin Dominance )

本轮牛市用哑铃策略能赚钱吗？

比特币主导指数用来反映比特币的市值占比率，经常用来判断山寨币季是否开始。从图中可以看出上一轮牛市 2021 年山寨季时，BTC.D 指数是在显著下跌。

可以解释的逻辑是：BTC.D 指数下跌 ➡️ BTC 主导地位下降 ➡️ 风险增加 ➡️ 山寨币重新获得市场地位 ➡️ 山寨开始暴涨。（反之亦然）

目前还是处在比特币季，该指数从今年初以来一直在上升，截止 7 月 26 日 56% ，山寨币的表现仍不及比特币，所以比特币占主导地位。

三、ETH 在本阶段落后于 BTC：参考 ETH/BTC 汇率

本轮牛市用哑铃策略能赚钱吗？

通常，ETH/BTC 汇率越大，两者价格差距越小，ETH 表现强劲。相反比例越小，说明价格差距越大，ETH 表现比较弱。

此外，这个指标也会用来判断市场对山寨币的兴趣，如果该比例开始跑赢 BTC 时，可能会是资金正在流入山寨币的迹象。

目前 ETH/BTC 汇率还是处在比较低的位置，ETH 表现比较弱，哪怕 ETF 通过也没能让以太逆势回转。但由于处在低位，如果对 ETH 信心比较足，也可以考虑分批建仓，等待后续上涨。

四、山寨总体萎靡：参考 ( 1) Altseason 指数

本轮牛市用哑铃策略能赚钱吗？

Altseason 指数追踪山寨市场情绪的指标，统计了一段时间内排名前 50 的山寨币种跑赢大饼的所占比例，指标显示大于 75 为山寨季，小于 25 为比特币季。

很明显目前处在比特币季，指标为 16 ，山寨势头比较弱。今年以来只有 1 月底该指标大于 75 的，只持续了半个月，与 21 年 3 月底-6 月底长达 3 个月指标超过 75 相比，还算不上真正意义上的山寨季。

五、山寨总体萎靡：参考 ( 2) 山寨币总市值

本轮牛市用哑铃策略能赚钱吗？

该指标全称是 Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC & ETH，除了 BTC、ETH 以外，加密市场其他代币总市值大小，反映了资金本身流入山寨币市场的整体情况。

山寨总市值在年初显著上升以后，并没有继续维持趋势，在这几个月震荡行情下反复波动，目前还没有明显突破信号，山寨整体还是比较弱。

六、Meme 币高风险高收益，跑赢 BTC、ETH：参考 Memecoin 指数

本轮牛市用哑铃策略能赚钱吗？

MarketVector 推出的 Meme Coin Index，追踪市值最大的 6 种 Meme 代币的回报率表现。

主要成分包括 $DOGE、$SHIB、$PEPE、$FLOKI、$WIF 和 $BONK，最能代表 Meme 币整体表现。

通过对比可以看出年初至今 Meme 币表现实在太抢眼，以 120% 涨幅超过， 52% 涨幅的 BTC 和 37% 涨幅的 ETH。

七、总结&风险提示

结合哑铃策略，从上述指标可以看出，目前市场行情下 BTC、ETH 确实是当之无愧的安全资产，市占率高。

尤其是 BTC，甚至比 ETH 更强。从回报率对比可以看出 Meme 币依旧是高风险高收益资产的代表。反观大部分山寨币，整体还是比较萎靡，没有太多机会，少放些筹码也没关系。

这里也要提示一下风险，加密资产配置是一件非常有难度的事，不是简单使用几个指标就完事了。

但无论如何都请记住，只有在大部分资金非常安全的情况下，冒险才是有意义的。经历多轮牛熊的人一定深有感触！老话说得好，留得青山在，不怕没柴烧呀。

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