$65K in play? Fidelity sounds alarm on Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook
Bitcoin's 2026 price outlook is divided among major asset managers. Bullish firms like VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase predict a strong rebound and a potential new all-time high of $150k, suggesting the typical 4-year cycle may have ended and that Bitcoin could move in sync with U.S. equities without a pronounced bear market.
However, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer expresses skepticism, warning that bear markets are still possible. He identifies $65k as a key level to watch, with $45k as further support, based on proprietary models like the Bitcoin Power Law.
CryptoQuant supports a bearish view, noting Bitcoin fell below its 1-year Moving Average in November 2025. Founder Ki Young Ju highlights slowing Realized Cap growth—a pattern observed in previous bear markets—as a sign of weakening capital inflows.
VanEck counters, arguing the cycle hasn’t peaked yet, citing the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) indicator below the 0.70 level that typically signals market tops.
In summary, Fidelity and CryptoQuant caution about a potential downturn to $65k or lower, while VanEck and others remain optimistic for new highs in 2026.
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