特朗普对加密货币的爱恨回顾，美国加密监管政策或将加速推进

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-07-15Actualizado a 2024-07-15

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枪声响起，转折开启。

原文作者：Aiying（X：@AiyingComplian1）

几声枪响，几近宣告美国总统选举的悬念终结了。这是政治暴力的时刻，也是一个「英雄」诞生的时刻。在加密世界，枪声也在此刻成为了多头反攻的发令枪，更成为了市场走势的催化剂。

美国东部时间 7 月 13 日 18 点 11 分，美国前总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州总统大选造势大会上遭遇枪击，满脸飙血的特朗普随即被特勤局保护，在向群众喊话示意后，被送往医院治疗，身体状况基本无大恙。

特朗普遭受枪击后，并没有快速离场，反而向在场集会的支持者喊话。在普利策奖获得者 Evan Vucci 的镜头下，特朗普高高攥着拳头，满脸飙血，头顶后方飘扬着美国国旗。图片渲染的悲情与英雄主义立刻成为经典，这震撼的一幕也成为了全球各大媒体争相转载的重磅图片，甚至有人发现他与 1803 年的《领导自由女神像》有着惊人的一致，更是为特朗普的战斗英雄形象添上了重彩的一笔。

特朗普刺杀消息传出后，在 Polymarket 上，对特朗普当选总统的下注已高达 70% ，而拜登仅有 16% ，与此同时伴随的还有 BTC 的大幅跳涨，迅速冲破 6 万美金。

政治对加密世界的影响在此时此刻有了更加直观的显示。虽然市场认为，特朗普大概率当选，其对加密货币的友好言论非常有利于加密货币的发展，然而，从更深层次来看，在日益两极化的政治斗争以及全球地缘政治博弈中，特朗普的遇刺或许将使得本就动荡的全球政治格局走向更为极端的方向。如果，进一步回溯特朗普过往对加密货币的态度或更可见这一趋势，也能窥见特朗普是如何从「反加密总统」走向「加密友好总统」。

一、 2017-2021 年总统任期：抨击！否定！但给予适度监管空间

在特朗普赢得第一次当选美国总统及任职期间，特朗普本人对加密货币持明确的反对立场，甚至在媒体上公开宣称对加密货币的否定。

然而也正是在特朗普任职期间，各项监管得到了初步发展。

在 2017 年上任当年的 7 月，美国便推出了不具有法律强制效力的《虚拟货币商业统一监管法案》，为虚拟货币交易所的业务活动提供了监管的基本法律框架，也为美国各州提供了立法基础；也是当年的 12 月，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）推出了比特币期货。

2018 年，特朗普治下的 SEC 开启对 ICO 的强监管，包括对全球首家加密银行 Arise Bank 的打击。

2019 年，当年首次在公开社媒上发表对比特币及加密资产的抨击，同时隔年发布的财政预算提案披露了数百万美元的对加密行业的监管执法资金。

2020-2021 年卸任前后，虽然特朗普政府内阁提名了多位加密友好的顾问，但在其对外发言上，仍然坚持「比特币是一个骗局并且呼吁加强对加密资产的监管」，个人也对外宣称并不持有加密货币。

二、 2021-2023 年卸任期间：转折点，NFT 狂潮下，特朗普深度参与

特朗普卸任当年，恰逢 NFT 发行迅猛增长，各路名人纷纷开启个人 NFT 的发行，一时间赚的盆满钵满，尤其是特朗普夫人也迅速跟上潮流宣布推出 NFT 平台，发行特朗普相关的 NFT，或许是各路名人以及自家夫人的亲身下场， 2022 年特朗普正式公开宣布发行自己限量版的 NFT。2023 年，特朗普连发两个系列的 NFT，并推出 NFT 权益，如特朗普晚宴、签名纪念品等，颇有一种要将自家的 NFT 事业做大做强的态势。有理由相信，卸任期间的特朗普通过 NFT 市场应当赚到了不少收益，一定程度上也为其后续竞选总统时态度改变做了强有力的铺垫。

三、 2024- 至今：政治斗争下的顺势转向，势要争做加密友好总统

2024 年作为美国总统的大选年，美国的党争日趋白热化，特朗普与拜登双方竭尽全力、甚至无所不用其极的努力争取总统宝座。加密货币由于受到更年轻选民的关注，同时在美国越来越普遍，也被特朗普拿来成为竞选的重要手段之一。

今年 5 月特朗普表示接受加密货币捐款，并特意点出「拜登甚至不知道什么是加密货币」，以此来讨好选民的投票及金钱上的支持。此外，特朗普还公开宣称：要确保加密货币和比特币的未来在美国并承诺赦免丝绸之路创始人 Ross Ulbricht。

特朗普部分支持原文演讲如下：

1、I will also stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto – we’re gonna stop it. I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin will be made in the USA, not driven overseas. I will support the right to self custody.

译文：我还将阻止乔 - 拜登讨伐加密货币的行动 -- 我们要阻止它。我将确保加密货币的未来和比特币的未来在美国，而不是被驱赶到海外。我将支持加密货币持有者自我保管的权利。

2、Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC. Biden's hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left.We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!!

译文：比特币挖矿可能是我们对抗 CBDC 的最后一道防线......我们希望所有剩余的比特币都在美国制造！！！

为加密货币成为政治斗争的重要手段的另一个例子则是特朗普的对手拜登的反应。

今年 5 月 9 日，在拜登政府决策下，宣布否决废除 SAB 121 法案，这一法案本质上是为了保护数字资产的消费者。拜登被否决后，引发了加密支持者的强烈反对，迫使拜登在当月发表申明呼吁国会建立「平衡的监管框架」，同时开始接触加密货币行业的关键人物。在特朗普对加密的强势示好之下，拜登不得不缓和一向的强硬立场，转而讨好选民，毕竟这事关总统宝座。

四、未来：政治与加密的交互，愈演愈烈的政治暴力，愈加合规的加密资产

也许特朗普的种种行为，正如 arthur hayes 批评的那样，他「突然关心起来加密货币」的行为并不真诚，而仅仅是讨好年轻、政治活跃和暴发户的加密货币群体，但从特朗普遇刺事件本身来看，在政治斗争到上升到武力冲突和暗杀阶段，这背后隐藏的美国内部割裂危机，社会矛盾也日益成为显性问题。或者，在不远更远的未来，人们对战争的担忧也有可能成为现实，那么这也会进一步强化比特币以及背后的加密资产作为全球终极避险资产的属性。

更为直接的影响则是，无论是拜登亦或特朗普上任，都将无法忽略加密资产以及其背后的 Z 世代年轻人群的影响，合规化或许将进一步加速。毕竟，特朗普作为接近 80 岁的老人，他应该明白这世界终将属于这些年轻人，他们将会引领新时代的开启，无论愿意不愿意，加密货币大势已成，让它合规发展总好过遍地诈骗，而特朗普高高挥舞的拳头以及鲜血不仅是美国政治史上足以载入史册的一幕，或许也将是加密世界走向「合规时代」的一个经典注脚。

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