Cosmos 生态系统深度分析：为什么看好不受市场欢迎的ATOM

金色财经Publicado a 2024-07-08Actualizado a 2024-07-09

Resumen

尽管普遍不受欢迎，ATOM 却意外地代表了当今市场上最佳的投资配置之一（风险/回报）。这篇文章将阐述该代币的史上最低情绪、更广泛的 Cosmos 生态系统令人印象深刻的增长，以及为什么 "这一次会不同"。

作者：David Attermann，m31 Capital 翻译：善欧巴，金色财经
尽管普遍不受欢迎，ATOM 却意外地代表了当今市场上最佳的投资配置之一（风险/回报）。这篇文章将阐述该代币的史上最低情绪、更广泛的 Cosmos 生态系统令人印象深刻的增长，以及为什么 "这一次会不同"。
Cosmos 和 ATOM 简介
Cosmos 不是一个区块链，而是一个由互操作区块链（应用链或区域链）组成的网络，通过 IBC（跨链通信）协议连接。与大多数区块链共享块空间不同，开发者可以在 Cosmos 上定制和部署他们自己的应用链，这赋予他们更大的设计灵活性（不同的应用有不同的性能/功能需求）、更好的可扩展性/更少的块空间竞争，以及可能最重要的是，应用可以累积价值的原生 gas 代币。
ATOM 是第一个在 Cosmos 上启动的区块链 Cosmos Hub 的原生代币。过去几年间，星际基金会 (Interchain Foundation) 主要专注于开发 Cosmos SDK 或软件开发工具包，使开发人员能够快速轻松地定制和启动应用链。此举具有高度战略意义：首先专注于应用程序/开发者招募以扩大网络效应，然后为 Hub 及其原生 ATOM 代币添加更多功能。
然而，自从项目启动以来，社区内部一直就 Hub 在更广泛生态系统中的作用以及代币提取价值的权利不断争吵。尽管整个生态系统取得了令人兴奋的增长，但 Hub 持续的身份危机一直阻碍着代币的发展。
ATOM投资论点
情绪处于历史最低点
目前Hub的情绪处于历史最低点，这从 ATOM 过去几年的绝对和相对价格表现中可以明显看出：
与ETH的相比，ATOM的价格在过去一年半是下降的。

最近市场大涨，ATOM错过了最近的市场广泛复苏。

并且ATOM在过去12个月下跌了18%（同期BTC上涨了120%）。

Cosmos已成为顶级Web3生态系统
该生态系统目前在开发者活动中排名第三：

拥有约500亿美元的IBC年度交易量：

总生态系统市值为820亿美元，其中250亿美元已经接入IBC。

该生态系统包括Web3主要垂直领域的明星项目，包括区块链基础设施（Sei, Celestia, Dymension, Axelar, Neutron）、DeFi（dYdX, Injective, Osmosis, Thorchain, Stride）、DePIN（Akash, Pocket, Jackal, Syntropy, Cudos, dVPN）、AI（Fetch.ai, Oraichain, Soarchain, AIOZ）和RWA（Provenance, Noble）

当包括Provenance时，IBC的总TVL为128亿美元，成为按TVL计算的第二大生态系统。（DefiLlama 和其他数据提供商不会聚合 Cosmos TVL，因为它尚未通过通用代币连接）

为什么“这次不同”
Jae Kwon最终退出了。
ATOM持有者过去曾多次尝试增加ATOM的价值积累。Hub社区历史上一直分为两派：

1）那些希望保持ATOM设计简单以最大化安全性的人（由联合创始人Jae Kwon领导）
2）那些希望改善代币的价值积累，特别是通过利用更广泛的Cosmos生态系统的经济活动的人

下图是Hub争议历史的简要总结：

讨论Cosmos Hub的未来和Stride
尽管连续遭到拒绝，但在2023年11月提案848（将ATOM通胀从14%降至10%）出人意料地通过后，Hub的前景完全改变了。虽然表面上不是一个巨大的胜利，但这是Jae Kwon的最后一根稻草，他立即宣布了他打算与他的忠实追随者一起分叉Hub的意图。新链AtomOne计划在本月推出。
随着Kwon最终退出，重新活跃的Hub社区决心最终改善ATOM代币的价值积累和认知。尽管目前还没有做出重大改变，但Hub论坛上有许多令人兴奋的想法（货币性、安全性、流动性），很可能很快就会有一波可能改变游戏规则的提案涌现。
Osmosis最近引入的IBC费用抽象就是个例子。
Cosmos用户最常见的抱怨之一是需要拥有不同区域的原生代币才能使它们互操作。Osmosis，领先的Cosmos DEX，最近引入了一个费用抽象模块，允许用户用任何Cosmos代币支付IBC Gas费用（只要接收区块链已批准升级）。该模块仍处于初期阶段，但如果它被广泛采用，ATOM有合法的机会成为IBC的默认Gas代币。

Bablylon集成极大增强了Hub的共享安全模型。

另一个鲜为人知的发展是Hub最近与Babylon，比特币再质押协议的合作伙伴关系。该合作伙伴关系，本月将启动测试网，将允许比特币持有者质押他们的BTC以保护Cosmos Hub ICS消费者链，这将与 Babylon 一起将比特币安全带入 Cosmos Hub：

总结

ATOM 情绪跌至谷底
Cosmos 生态系统从未如此强劲
随着 Jae Kwon 的离开，ATOM 治理现在可以追求更有意义的价值积累（以及其他看涨选项）
我没有特定的催化剂或价格目标；我只是认为，考虑到其复杂性和充满争议的历史，市场忽视了 ATOM 的一系列利好发展。这种动态使该代币今天具有极具吸引力的风险/回报率（作为对比，ETH 和 SOL 的完全稀释估值目前分别为 ATOM 的 100 倍和 15 倍）。鉴于有利的设置，我相信 Hub 只需要一个治理提案就能实现重大的估值重估。

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Bienvenido a la comunidad de HTX. Aquí puedes mantenerte informado sobre los últimos desarrollos de la plataforma y acceder a análisis profesionales del mercado. A continuación se presentan las opiniones de los usuarios sobre el precio de ATOM (ATOM).