SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-05-28Actualizado a 2024-05-28

Resumen

比特币在横盘了接近一周后于昨日美盘时段再次突破70000美元关口,市场的看涨热情似乎终于被ETF持续不断的流入而打动。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

昨日美股和美债因阵亡将士纪念日休市一日,但本周稍晚将有重磅数据(GDP 和美联储青睐的 PCE 通胀数据)公布,因此被认为是“短暂但繁忙的一周”。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

数字货币方面,比特币在横盘了接近一周后于昨日美盘时段再次突破 70000 美元关口,市场的看涨热情似乎终于被 ETF 持续不断的流入而打动,考虑到美股因假期休市,分析平台 Santiment 将这波上涨定性为一个令人鼓舞的迹象,因为它证明了 BTC 能够在与 TradFi 涨跌相关性不那么紧密的时候也能有很好的表现。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Source: TradingView;Farside Investors

但事情的发展并不是一帆风顺。就在 BTC 突破七万之后,市场传来消息:门头沟(Mt.Gox)的冷钱包向未标记地址转移了 12.24 kBTC,价值约 8.4 亿美元。2014 年,Mt.Gox 的债权人在这家交易所倒闭的时候受到重创,该交易所在过去十年来一直在努力回收资金用作偿还,今日 BTC 链上的转移被部分交易员视作潜在的抛压和利空的催化剂,BTC 币价随后便在日内峰值处急速下滑至 68000 下方。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Source:Twitter

期权方面,市场的关注点再度回到 BTC 身上。过去 24 小时的过山车行情还有市场对潜在抛压的担忧抬高了隐含波动率,IV 曲线整体走平走高,波动率微笑也在价格下跌后快速向看跌期权倾斜,从成交上看,BTC 最大一笔交易也是 6 月的一组 Short Risky(450 BTC per leg),卖出 75000-Call 的同时买入 65000-Put 作为保护,净 Premium 大约为2B TC。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Source: Deribit (截至 28 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Data Source: Deribit, ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240528):再忆门头沟

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