SignalPlus宏观分析(20240424)：坏消息就是好消息

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2024-04-24Actualizado a 2024-04-24

Resumen

“坏消息就是好消息”再次回归， 4月份制造业PMI的放缓提振了风险市场情绪，整体数据跌破50 ，低于预期的52。加密货币价格保持强劲，BTC再次逼近6.7万美元。

“坏消息就是好消息”再次回归， 4 月份制造业 PMI 的放缓提振了风险市场情绪，整体数据跌破 50 ，低于预期的 52 ，其中新订单 ( 49.5 vs 52.6)、产出 ( 51.1 vs 54) 以及就业 ( 51.9 vs 52.2) 表现疲软是主要原因。随后发布的服务业 PMI 也意外走软至 50.9 ，低于预期的 51.7 ，其中新业务和就业 ( 47.3 vs 51.1) 大幅下滑，后者跌至疫情以来的最低水平。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240424)：坏消息就是好消息

美债随之反弹， 2 年期收益率出现牛陡走势，从 5% 左右回落至 4.92% 。美元也随之走软，欧元兑美元来到 1.07 上方，美元兑日圆则维持在 154.85 下方。疲软的经济数据重新点燃降息的希望，科技股领涨股市反弹，科技股涨幅达 1.5% 。

更值得关注的是，S&P 经济学家的官方评论表示，近期的经济活动“可能会在未来几个月内放缓，因为 4 月份新业务流入是 6 个月以来首次出现下滑”，这“促使企业以全球金融危机以来（疫情期间除外）未见的速度削减工作岗位“。这确实是个令人警醒的前景。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240424)：坏消息就是好消息

此外，作为进一步空头挤压的迹象，Tesla 在第一季度财报发布后，盘后上涨了 13% ，尽管其利润、收入和利润率都严重低于市场预期。该企业的全球库存从可供 15 天跃升至 28 天，显示出需求放缓的迹象，不过从价格走势来看，投资者对于财报的疲软已经充分做好了应对准备。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240424)：坏消息就是好消息

在其他方面，亚洲地区重新出现一些乐观情绪，HSI 和 HSCEI 上周表现优于大多数已开发市场指数，这是很长一段时间不曾有过的。自农历新年以来，除一周外，每周流入香港的南向资金均为正值，这表明今年初支持性的政策转向后，监管当局的行动确实带来一些实质性的正面影响。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240424)：坏消息就是好消息

加密货币价格保持强劲，BTC 再次逼近 6.7 万美元，altcoins 在过去一周反弹 10-20% 。虽然有些人可能将减半视为驱动市场的主要正面因素，但我们认为价格多次跌至 6 万水平已经清除了大量短期多头，使得当前的空头挤压加剧。预计未来几天内，价格将反映股市情绪的复苏，一直到 PCE 数据发布，届时若数据走弱，可能会成为 BTC 拉回 7 万美元以上的催化剂，希望好运降临！

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240424)：坏消息就是好消息

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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