比特币涨势或陷入倦怠期,黄金有望加速超越!

jin10Publicado a 2024-03-29Actualizado a 2024-03-29

Wolfe Research表示,随着全球最大的加密货币徘徊在70000美元左右,黄金有望领先比特币。

过去一个月,黄金和数字货币一直步伐一致,即使在美股接近历史高点的情况下,两者也都创下了新高。

然而,比特币似乎再度陷入2021年以来的交易模式,该代币此前两次飙升至历史新高后都出现大幅回调。

Wolfe董事总经理Rob Ginsberg在周三的一份报告中表示:“从历史上看,比特币更像是一种‘风险资产’,而且通常是散户投资者过剩流动性的归宿(比如2021年)。”

不可否认,比特币和黄金的走势有相似之处,那么同样的命运是否也在等待着它们?

Ginsberg表示,“虽然我们绝对不会像过去那样预测比特币会出现50%的回调,但如果它继续在70000美元上方徘徊,我们也不会感到震惊。”

不过,他补充道,黄金的表现可能会更好。“黄金与比特币的比率接近支撑位,同时每周都处于超卖状态,”Ginsberg说。

“如果我们对比特币的预测是正确的,并且它继续在60000-73000美元的区域内盘整,那么这可能为黄金开始跑赢比特币提供一个很好的机会。”

比特币在3月14日创下73679美元的历史新高,但在交易员们消化了这波涨势后,于上周跌至约60800美元。

Ginsberg指出,比特币现在已回到高位,看起来准备重新加速上行,但“历史上比特币在70000美元以上的水平通胀面临很强劲的抛售压力”。

在2023年3月加密货币与股票的相关性急剧下降之后,比特币的“数字黄金”叙事又重新流行了大约一年。今年该代币的上涨最初受到美国批准现货比特币ETF的预期提振。此外,预计在4月下旬发生的减半事件也是其涨势的催化剂。

Lecturas Relacionadas

Why Is DeFi Insurance Unpopular?

The article explores the core reasons why DeFi insurance remains largely unutilized despite its potential to eliminate traditional insurance inefficiencies and malicious claim denials through automated smart contracts. Key points include: 1. **Low Adoption & Minimal Payouts:** Leading provider Nexus Mutual has paid only ~$18M in claims since 2019, dwarfed by single hack losses (e.g., Kelp DAO's $292M loss). 2. **High Correlation Risk:** Unlike traditional insurance (e.g., house fires), DeFi risks (oracle failures, bridge hacks) are systemic and can simultaneously impact multiple protocols, threatening to drain entire insurance pools. 3. **Prohibitive Cost vs. Reward:** For many protocols (Aave, Morpho, Compound), insurance premiums (1.5%-6%) consume a significant portion or even all of the native yield (3%-4%), leaving investors with meager returns. In some cases (Maple Finance, Ethena), premiums can even result in net-negative yields. 4. **Inadequate Capacity:** The total DeFi insurance pool (e.g., Nexus Mutual's $81.56M) is minuscule compared to the hundreds of billions in total value locked (TVL), creating a massive supply-demand gap. 5. **Structural Flaws:** The claims assessment model (e.g., Nexus Mutual's member voting) creates a conflict of interest, as voters bear the loss if a claim is paid. There is also no regulatory mandate forcing DeFi protocols to obtain insurance. The industry is adapting by focusing on preventative measures (e.g., bug bounty coverage) and seeking external capital via reinsurance. However, the fundamental issues of small pool size, correlated risk, and misaligned economic incentives persist. The article concludes that DeFi insurance, like a public lighthouse, provides shared security benefits, but if everyone relies on others to pay for it, no one will, leaving the ecosystem vulnerable.

Foresight NewsHace 10 min(s)

Why Is DeFi Insurance Unpopular?

Foresight NewsHace 10 min(s)

Ethlabs Founded, Treasury Companies to Fund Ethereum Post-EF

Former Ethereum Foundation (EF) core researchers Ansgar Dietrichs, Barnabé Monnot, Caspar Schwarz-Schilling, Josh Rudolf, and Julian Ma announced the launch of Ethlabs, an independent non-profit R&D lab focused on Ethereum core protocol research and institutional-grade infrastructure. The initiative, backed by over 50 community participants including ETH treasury companies BitMine and Sharplink, Joseph Lubin, Hayden Adams, and Jesse Pollak, aims to make Ethereum the global economic settlement layer. This move comes amidst significant pressure on the EF, which has seen key departures and a strategic narrowing of its focus. A critical funding gap of approximately $30 million annually for core client development, following the expiration of the client incentive program, poses a near-term risk to the network's development. The context includes the evolution of ETH's value narrative. While mechanisms like EIP-1559 and the Merge previously supported the "ultrasound money" thesis, the success of L2 scaling via EIP-4844 has drastically reduced L1 fee revenue, leading to net ETH issuance and challenging that narrative. Ethlabs has listed ETH monetary economics as a primary research focus. Backing from corporate ETH treasuries like BitMine and Sharplink represents a strategic alignment, as these entities' asset values are directly tied to Ethereum's health and adoption. Their support is an investment rather than a pure donation. Ethereum's governance is shifting from a centralized EF model to a distributed network of specialized "manager nodes," including Ethlabs and a streamlined EF. While this promotes efficiency and reduces single-point failure risk, it introduces new challenges in coordination, priority alignment, and filling critical funding gaps across the decentralized ecosystem.

Foresight NewsHace 34 min(s)

Ethlabs Founded, Treasury Companies to Fund Ethereum Post-EF

Foresight NewsHace 34 min(s)

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片