SignalPlus宏观研报(20231220)：假期临近，多市场维持现状

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2023-12-20Actualizado a 2023-12-20

Resumen

与其他央行保持一致，日本央行一致决议维持负利率和收益率曲线控制政策不变。在股市方面，不同公司给出的前景指引好坏参半，而加密货币价格仍持平。

Morning BTC call！我看从现在到元旦节假日可以玩：现货价格一打到 4 万，就直接买末日 call。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231220)：假期临近，多市场维持现状

与其他央行保持一致，日本央行一致决议维持负利率和收益率曲线控制政策不变，另外，虽然有传言称一月会发生政策变化，但央行给出的展望也仍维持不变，行长 Ueda 对实现 2% 的通胀目标表示乐观，但他也补充“很难确定何时会发生”。

行长还重申，一月份的决定仍将“取决于数据”，不过他也幽默地表示，“日本央行不太可能告诉人们他们下个月会加息”，试图让交易者抱持警惕，受此影响，日圆下跌 1% ，而随著今年最后一个央行会议结束，风险资产也持续走高。

美债和股票的交易量仅为正常水平的 60 – 70% ，强于预期的加拿大 CPI 数据，以及 Bostic 的鸽派言论（美国在通胀方面取得“良好进展” ，政策“定位良好”）几乎没有影响市场，市场也同样忽略了强劲的美国新屋开工数据，独栋新屋开工数飙升至 1.5 年来的最高水平，但对市场的影响微乎其微，不过显而易见的是，尽管制造业持续低迷，美国住房和消费者形势依然强劲。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231220)：假期临近，多市场维持现状

在股市方面，不同公司给出的前景指引好坏参半，美国银行 CEO Moynihan 表示，消费者“状况非常好”，支出同比增长 4 – 5% ，这意味著家庭的超额储蓄高达约 9, 000 亿美元，较低的能源价格也有助于促进旅行和消费习惯，一些面向消费者的公司如 Estee Lauder、Ralph Lauren 和 PVH 等，也预计会确认这一观点；另一方面，由于航空货运量下降，未能达到盈利预期，FedEx 盘后暴跌 7% ，该公司 CFO 认为经济放缓和需求下降“继续给营收带来压力” 。

无论如何，我们预计股市反弹的范围将继续扩大，短期内风险情绪应该会保持正向，此外，与我们在疫情期间看到的情况类似，小型散户投资者的表现似乎再次胜过对冲基金经理，对冲基金最大的多头仓位的表现明显落后于“较弱”和被做空最多的股票，这是股市领先地位从七大股向较小型股票缓慢扩大的另一个表现，总之，市场很可能会继续保持单向上涨的模式。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231220)：假期临近，多市场维持现状

在加密货币方面，价格仍持平，随著宏观市场因假期而关闭，且流动性仍然较为低迷，预计市场会更容易受到日常消息噪音的影响；同时，尽管大型银行 CEO 们近期在参议院银行业听证会中表达了对加密货币的负面观点，但金融机构在动荡的 2023 年仍在加密货币领域取得了许多实质进展，Bloomberg 列出了银行业在过去一年中所采取的部分区块链举措，希望明年这个列表会更长。

最后，每日宏观研报将暂停更新至明年的 1 月 2 日，不过，未来几周我们将发布 2024 年宏观展望，请密切关注。在此祝福各位有一个愉快的假期，并在新的一年也能够交易顺利！

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231220)：假期临近，多市场维持现状

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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