PSE Trading：鲍威尔表示，2024大概率终止加息

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2023-12-15Actualizado a 2023-12-15

Resumen

Fed放鸽：结束加息，转向2024降息。

原文作者：@MacroFang，PSE Trading Trader

美联储已经第三次保持利率不变，这标志着其积极的加息行动的结束，并预测从 2024 年开始的一系列降息。在一致的决定中，官员们同意将基准联邦基金利率保持在 5.25% 至 5.5% ，这是自 2001 年以来的最高水平。自 2021 年 3 月以来，首次没有进一步的上升利率预期。

PSE Trading：鲍威尔表示，2024大概率终止加息

降息 = 股市大涨

降息通常被视为市场的燃料。其实，可以回顾 2020 年疫情期间降息至 0% 的情况。在 Fed 完成一系列降息动作之后，引发了标普指数的大涨。更低的利率使借款成本更低，从而鼓励企业进行投资和消费者进行消费。

PSE Trading：鲍威尔表示，2024大概率终止加息

SPX rallied in Dec 2020, since Fed started cutting rates

联储 2024 年的降息计划：明年 75 个基点

美联储预计明年将利率降低 75 个基点，这比 9 月的预期快得多。对 2024 年底联邦基金利率的中值预测为 4.6% ，尽管个别预期波动较大。八位官员预测明年的降息次数将少于三次，而五位官员预期的降息次数更多。

PSE Trading：鲍威尔表示，2024大概率终止加息

Dot plot

鲍威尔： 2024 大概率终止加息

主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示，这些预测并不构成预设的计划。他一直保留了根据需要进一步提高利率的可能性，以控制价格压力的激增。然而，他确实证实，在本周的会议中有考虑降息的讨论。

在 12 月初，鲍威尔警告市场不要对明年第一季度降息持有期待，他表示现在判断政策立场是否足够收紧，以及预测何时可能放松政策还为时过早。鲍威尔和其他政策制定者都同意，实现 2% 的通胀目标将是艰难的。政策制定者们承诺将利率保持在足够高的水平足够长的时间，以确保价格通胀回归目标，这导致市场参与者预期降息可能最早在三月出现。

在预测今年和明年的通胀水平将下降的同时，美联储优先的价格衡量指标（排除食品和能源）预计在 2024 年将增长 2.4% 。对于明年的经济增长稍有向下修正，而失业预测保持不变。

对国债收益率的影响

近几周来，国债收益率已大幅降低，有效地抹去了整个夏季到十月份的增长。金融条件的显著收紧可能会降低进一步提高利率的需要。利率的下降已经开始影响经济，降低了房贷利率，并触发了近期再融资和购房需求的上涨。

三大利好：BTC 和 ETH

美联储降息对传统金融市场以及加密货市场产生重大影响，尤其是比特币和其他加密货币。

PSE Trading：鲍威尔表示，2024大概率终止加息

我们看到 BTC 和 ETH 的三大利好：

ETF 批准
BTC 减半
Fed 降息

PSE Trading：鲍威尔表示，2024大概率终止加息

Bitcoin ETP inflows have soared in recent month as anticipation of a spot ETF has grown.

在低利率环境下，投资者往往寻找高收益资产以实现所需的回报。这种环境可能有利于比特币，这是一种非利息资产，由于其高回报的潜力，它成为了一种吸引人的投资替代品。

PSE Trading：鲍威尔表示，2024大概率终止加息

Asset managers have been adding to ETH futures as well

历史上，比特币在低利率条件下表现良好，因为其去中心化的特性和重大价格升值的潜力。 2020 年利率剪刀至 0% ，这是对 COVID-19 大流行的反应，比特币的价格飙升，因为它被视为对抗通货膨胀的对冲工具，在不确定的经济环境中储值。

降息=做多风险资产

较低的利率也对其他风险资产有利。公司可以以低利率借款，从而增加资本投资和增长。这种情况可以刺激股市，提升风险资产的价值。相反，被视为更安全的资产，如债券，可能会看到需求减少，因为他们相对较低的收益变得不那么有吸引力。

总结来说，尽管美联储在 2024 年可能的利率剪刀将对一系列金融市场产生广泛的影响，但它可能特别有利于比特币和其他风险资产，因为它创造了一个有利的投资环境。

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