SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2023-12-07Actualizado a 2023-12-07

Resumen

美国经济放缓的趋势持续，ADP就业数据弱于预期（加上德国工厂订单大幅下滑，环比-3.7%，远低于预期的+0.2%），投资者的看法似乎从“理想的通胀放缓“进一步恶化为更显著的经济减速。加密货币价格继续享受近期的复苏，BTC价格达到4.4万美元，从2个月前的低点大幅反弹了 70%。

美国经济放缓的趋势持续，ADP 就业数据弱于预期（加上德国工厂订单大幅下滑，环比 -3.7% ，远低于预期的 + 0.2% ），投资者的看法似乎从“理想的通胀放缓“进一步恶化为更显著的经济减速，欧洲收益率在 48 小时内下跌 25 至 30 个基点，美债收益率也同步下跌约 15 个基点；收益率曲线在这波走势中持续牛平趋势，短天期利率市场已经激进地定价美联储和欧洲央行会在明年 12 月前降息 125 – 150 个基点，而昨天几位欧洲央行官员则试图淡化前一天 Schnabel 冲击性的鸽派言论：

欧洲央行哈萨克斯坦表示“ 2024 年上半年不需要降息”
Kazimir 表示， 2024 年第一季降息的期待是“科幻情节”

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

经济动能突然出现的寒意从（花旗的）美国经济意外指数中明显可见，该指数显示“硬数据”部分急剧转向跌至 6 个月低点，随著经济放缓主题似乎开始占据主导地位，工业大宗商品板块也做出了相应的反应，油价当日下跌 4% 至 70 美元以下，铜价在过去几天下跌了 5% 。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

随著名目收益率大幅下降， 1 年期通胀掉期在过去一周也大幅下跌 25 个基点，是多个标准差的大幅变动，也落至今年初以来的最低水平，市场似乎完全相信通胀问题已被彻底解决，而央行官员们对于价格黏性的担忧似乎已经过时，市场是正确的吗？还是再一次过于心急？只有时间能给出答案…

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

那为什么股价仍然坚挺呢？目前的叙事仍与先前的“周期末期”走势相同，美联储的鸽派转向导致实际收益率相应下滑，推动 SPX 的估值在远期市盈率基础上扩大了 10% 至 19 倍，近期的股市上涨几乎完全是因为估值倍数的扩张，而不是盈利轨迹的显著提升。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

此外，虽然债券收益率的下降是由经济放缓的预期所驱动的，但股市仍然完全相信理想荣景的可能性，他们不认为美联储额外的政策放松等同于经济衰退的风险增加，资深读者们一定都还记得，这不是第一次股票与债券在各自前景上出现分歧，且众所周知股票投资者几乎永远保持乐观。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

话虽如此，从历史经验来看，股市坚定的乐观情绪通常会推动价格在首次降息前后上涨，而随后的走势则取决于此后的经济发展路径。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

此外，股票投资者并不只是说说而已，股票头寸和情绪指标在 2023 年的大部分时间都保持在非常高的水平。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

说到乐观情绪，加密货币价格继续享受近期的复苏，BTC 价格达到 4.4 万美元，从 2 个月前的低点大幅反弹了 70% ，虽然在具体发展方面没有太多可以注意的，不过短期内建议关注 FOMC 潜在的鹰派立场是否会构成一个风险事件，特别是考虑到加密货币投资者已经为进一步市场上行进行布局，根据 Deribit 数据，短期看涨期权与看跌期权比率已经相当高。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

此外，与过去几年不同的是，根据 Google 趋势，本次 FOMO 反弹未能引起主流兴趣的显著回升，仍缺乏新的散户资金进入加密货币领域，这根据个人看法可以解读为正面或者负面，不过考虑到价格水平越来越具有反转动能，流动性池没有大幅扩大，且我们正在接近主要宏观资产类别的超买情绪水平，比较建议在当前价格水平抱持谨慎态度。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

最后，如果对“大型银行”和美国监管机构在加密货币方面的立场有任何怀疑，昨天在参议院银行委员会会议上，我们看到了参议员 Warren（一位基本上反银行的政治家）与 JPM CEO Jamie Dimon 罕见地表达了共同的观点，双方都毫不掩饰地批评了加密货币，明确地表达了他们对加密货币的看法，这确实提醒了我们加密货币目前在世界权力中心的地位仍有进步的空间。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231207)：宏观经济放缓，加密市场持续复苏

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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