小幽灵创始人Sleepy：新的Meme PFP生命周期会更短

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2023-11-21Actualizado a 2023-11-21

Resumen

还活着的老项目在下个牛市都是蓝筹。

原文作者：sleepy.mid（ Twitter ：@sleepy0x13）

本文源自 Weirdo Ghost Gang 创始人 Sleepy 的 X，其发表了自己对 2024 年 NFT 发展情况的 10 大预言，他认为

缺少载体的 PFP 很难活过 6 个月， 2024 年 Meme NFT 生命周期会比现在还要短暂，个别项目的财富效应会更疯狂等。Odaily星球日报将其整理如下：

快到年底了，突发奇想，想对现在自己的一些想法做个快照，等明年年底的时候再来验证有多少成真又有多少超出了我的想象。

1. 一些 NFT IP 会真的带动 Mass Adoption

个人认为，靠挑战现有金融体系来实现 Mass Adoption 是不太现实的，虽然我们这个行业的正派从业者都有着一个去中心化理想，并且在一些通胀严重的国家、外贸交易等场景中已经相对普及，但是对于我们平时生活的环境来说，通过 token 来实现 Mass Adoption 是不太现实的。而 NFT IP 本身代表了持续的内容输出能力，在我看来内容才是更好吸引圈外人的方式，通过内容的吸引再加上技术方面降低入场门槛才有机会实现 Mass Adoption。难的从来都不是教圈外人怎么用钱包，难的是说服圈外人为啥非得用钱包。

2. 还活着的老项目在下个牛市都是蓝筹

这里的「活着」我不是用地板价、交易量等作为评判标准，而是要看团队是否还在做事情。下面这些话我想送给行业中的创业者，要相信付出是会有回报的，虽然我们总说这个行业总是不奖励长期主义，但我们做过的事情总会被人看见，真正的长期主义是一定会有收获的。

3. PFP Collection 仍然是 NFT 的主流形式

这里我的意思是，大多数想通过 NFT 来做一个营销工作的项目，仍然会采用头像的形式来发行他们的 NFT，因为用户换上头像之后会在各个社交媒体中成为项目的宣传口径，举一个可能不太恰当但是能很好表达我想法的例子，头像 Holder 的社交媒体账户会变成各个社交媒体平台上的分众传媒。

4. 缺少载体的 PFP 很难活过 6 个月

这里的「载体」，用大白话说就是「你们项目到底是做啥的」，比如说跳海也在做各种活动和营销但主业是卖酒。项目需要有完整的商业模式，留给新项目去在发售后慢慢摸索商业模式的时间会越来越少，也就是说创业者不能再等卖完 NFT 再去完成未来规划、资源整合，而是要把这些前置。

5. 新的 Meme PFP 生命周期会更短

Meme 是永远不会消失的，是永远都会层出不穷的， 2024 年 Meme NFT 生命周期会比现在还要短暂，个别项目的财富效应会更疯狂。

6. 艺术家在商业项目中的地位会进一步变低

各方面都是顶级的天王级项目不太讨论行列之内。随着 AI 的发展，NFT 项目美术方面的差距会被抹平，除非 IP 本身的设计有着极强的独特性，艺术家可能在个人的艺术项目中仍旧会是主导，但是在商业项目中会原来越像工具人。

7. RWA 赛道里 NFT 大有可为

没有很深入的研究过 RWA，所以可能有些想法会有些错误，欢迎指正。RWA 最重要的就是现实世界的资产包是什么，站在个人角度，我更感兴趣的资产包是线下店铺的收入权。前段时间和一位Web2的投资人朋友交流，现在他们在尝试使用滴灌通的模式来投资线下店铺，具体模式不赘述了，感兴趣的话可以自己查查看，我挺期待通过持有某些 NFT 来获得几家线下店的收益权。当然法币和 crypto 中间怎么转换也是一个待解决的问题，不过非常期待。

8. NFT 流动性解决方案持续迭代，现有的产品都面临挑战

我不是学金融的，平时炒币也不多，拍脑袋想想比如说把 Blur 和 Flooring 这两个 NFT 流动性解决方案做个组合是不是会更合理呢，再加一些骚活儿。我把 Blur 视作一个 NFT 流动性解决方案而不只是交易市场，想干掉 Blur、OpenSea 之类的创业者们是不是也可以换个思路来想一想呢。

9. Fully Virtual 的元宇宙将持续低迷，但非常看好虚实结合的应用场景

纯虚拟那就很吃体验了，尤其是又套上个元宇宙的名字，体验一般般的都会挨骂，更别说大部分连「一般」都还做不到。再加上社交属性、实时渲染等各种难题不断的上强度，技术角度看 2024 年大概率没戏。但我非常看好虚实结合的体验，在虚拟资产把我们带入它们的世界之前，先把它们带入我们的世界。

10. 会出现一个跨多个赛道的超级 NFT 项目

从 NFT IP 开始的项目是有非常大想象空间的，原因很简单，IP 能够适配任何产品、任何赛道。举个例子，任何项目，无论是 DeFi、RWA、GameFi、社交、元宇宙、潮牌等等都能用小幽灵 IP 作为项目的「代言人」。所以，在团队想认真做事情的前提下，NFT 项目有极大的延展空间，后面可以接上各类项目。当然，同时铺这么广的管线对于初创公司是根本不可能的，我只是提出一个可能性，创业者还是应该脚踏实地，一步一脚印。

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