解析做市商在贝莱德比特币ETF充当的关键角色

Odaily星球日报Publicado a 2023-11-07Actualizado a 2023-11-07

Resumen

今年市场的流动性不断枯竭,Coinbase 在 Q3 财报透露做市商的退出导致交易量的流失。而贝莱德寻求 Jane Street,Jump Trading 等做市商商议合作激起民众对市场回暖的信心。

原文作者:Matthew Lee

近期有消息透露,贝莱德正寻求 Jane Street,Jump Trading 等顶尖做市商商议潜在合作的可能,希望未来可以在比特币现货 ETF 通过后帮助贝莱德做市。而做市商与贝莱德的潜在合作的可能性也再次激起了民众对市场回暖的信心。尤其是去年 FTX 破产到今年加密银行 Signiture 和 Sivergate 倒闭后,市场的流动性就不断枯竭。

而今年 6 月监管启动对加密货币调查以来,市场变得越来越脆弱。更多人开始指向是因为监管的不确定性,导致 Jump Trading,Jane Street 等做市商开始逐渐退出加密货币市场,导致的流动性枯竭。行业巨头 Coinbase 也在最新财报透露做市商的退出导致大批交易量的流失

解析做市商在贝莱德比特币ETF充当的关键角色

Source:Coinbase Q3 Earnings

根据 KaiKo 的数据, 7 月初到 8 月中旬, 1% 的市场深度降低约 15 %,做市商对市场的重要性不言而喻。

* 1% 的市场深度指的是当交易量达到某个数量可以提升资产价格 1% ,如下图 7 月初需要 $ 400 M 才可以提升 1% 的价格,但是在 8 月中旬只需要 $ 320 M 即可。

解析做市商在贝莱德比特币ETF充当的关键角色

Source: Kaiko Research

在市场深度逐渐减弱的情况下,出现任何风吹草动,都会导致资产价格大幅波动,比如 8 月份,恒大宣布破产保护,特斯拉在过去一个季度清算一定量比特币等轻微负面消息都使 BTC 价格跌幅超过 16.7 %。10 月份,比特币现货 ETF 通过的假新闻可以使得整个市场瞬间上涨近 17 %,这些看似无理性的暴涨或者暴跌主要原因是做市商流动性的撤出

因此不止是贝莱德,每一个 ETF 管理公司都会积极雇佣做市商,帮助减轻 ETF 大宗交易或短时间内集中交易订单对 ETF 价格的冲击。尤其是某个不太活跃的 ETF 在某一天没有其他投资者愿意购买,如果没有做市商介入,滑点可能会大幅上升,使得成交价格只能在最近的市价的 10% 处完成。这可能会导致 ETF 份额的价格下跌约 90% 。

除了提供流动性,做市商最主要的意义还包括以下两点:

当资产价格出现大幅波动时,做市商会采取反向操作以提供 ETF 稳定性

  •  某个做市商为某一数字资产提供了 $ 10 M 的流动性,当该资产价格上涨 10% 时,该做市商持有多头头寸价值 $ 8 M。尽管该资产可能会继续上涨至 8% ,但出于风险管理考虑,做市商可能在上涨 5 %时开始增加卖单并减少买单。(如果不这样做,假设 8% 时做市商还是 $ 8 M 的仓位,股价开始回调,市场上的交易者都开始出售股票,而做市商只能买入,仓位就会冲到 10 M 以上,导致做市商无法清掉手头仓位。)这种反向操作有助于减缓价格波动的速度。

套利手段使得 ETF 的价值可以反应底层资产的真实价格

  • 比特币的交易是 7/24 的,而美股市场的 ETF 只有在一定时间内才会有比较充足的流动性,当流动性缺少时 ETF 的 NAV 不能反映 BTC 真实的资产价格,由此引起 ETF 和现货市场的价差,而做市商的套利行为可以大幅减少价差。

做市商不仅在为 ETF 提供了至关重要的流动性和主动监督,而且还在 ETF 的创建和赎回过程中发挥着关键作用,确保投资者在买入或卖出时支付的价格可以反映 ETF 里比特币的价值。

与股票一样,ETF 主要在一级和二级市场运作。一级市场上,BlackRock 首先向授权参与者 (又称为 Authorized Participants,APs)发行大量比特币,作为 ETF 份额的交换。在收到 ETF 单位资产(比特币)后,授权参与者又会充当做市商,并使 ETF 单位可在二级市场进行交易。投资者可以在每个交易日与做市商或其他投资者在交易所交易 ETF 单位,就像交易股票一样。如下图所示:

解析做市商在贝莱德比特币ETF充当的关键角色

普通用户如何与做市商参与 ETF 利好?

由上图可知,现货 ETF 的一级市场活动占据发行主要部分,在 ETF 份额创建和赎回的过程中需要有大量机构参与。比如以 Coinbase,纽约梅隆银行,Paxos 等机构为主的托管业务,它们可以间接地为普通投资者提供更安全的数字资产储存和管理方式。通过投资托管服务提供商普通用户可以获得收益,比如,Coinbase 在第三季度净亏损的情况下依然在财报披露当天上涨超 8% 。

又或者是以 OKLinkChainalysisElliptic 等链上数据公司为主的合规业务,以帮助金融机构和监管机构识别和追踪数字资产的合规性。例如帮助托管公司或者基金管理公司提供的工具来验证数字资产的来源,确保资金不会违反反洗钱规定而受到监管的处罚。

普通用户不止可以参与 ETF 这些“上游产业”进行投资布局,也可以使用链上数据公司提供的工具,例如 OKLink 浏览器功能,来浏览和监视已经公开的 ETF 相关钱包地址的交易和资金流动,更好观察底层资产的资金动态,以确保他们更清晰的了解和参与数字资产市场和区块链生态系统,更好地管理风险、提高投资决策的理性。

写在最后

做市商在加密货币领域扮演着至关重要的角色,他们有助于新项目的发展与推广,同时也能降低交易成本和提高交易效率。之前一些新晋做市商的不当行为引起了市场对做市商的抵触情绪,认为做市商是破环市场公平的“庄家”。基于此,做市商也需要遵守行业和监管的规范,维护自己的声誉,才能赢得市场和合规的支持。

参考

Jump Trading 13 F annual report,

https://wallmine.com/fund/3mg/jump-trading-llc#google_vignette

Management of ProShares Trust,

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174610/000168386321004445/f9424d1.htm#xx_da9783d 3-0834-486 d-895 a-bf 5 a 204 a 274 f_ 1 

美股市场上的做市商影响股价吗,

https://www.gelonghui.com/p/46676

Proshare Trust Registration Statement,

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174610/000168386321004445/f9424d1.htm

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