大户逆势做空,大型机构乐观调仓中仍存微妙信号 | CFTC 比特币持仓周报

长文源:foresightnewsPublicado a 2023-11-05Actualizado a 2023-11-06

Resumen

最新一期 CME 比特币持仓周报显示,机构对后市普遍表达出偏乐观的态度,唯大户一类账户逆势做空,震荡行情将继续考验各类账户调仓思路的延续性。

参考阅读:《一文读懂 CFTC 持仓周报是什么

 

11 月 4 日公布的最新一期 CFTC CME 比特币持仓周报( 10 月 25 日 - 10 月 31 日)显示,比特币标准合约总持仓量自 19678 微降至 19678,该数值三周连涨势头告一段落,不过最新统计周期内出现小幅回调过后,该数值仍然保持在历史高点附近。该统计周期内比特币价格保持窄区间震荡,行情波动不大的背景下,总持仓量保持平稳并不令人意外,而各类账户调仓上的细节是否会给出新的多空指向信息更值得重点关注。

 

 

规模最大的经销商账户多头头寸自 509 上升至 683,该数值创出近 16 周新高,空头头寸自 3596 上升至 4757,该数值创出近 35 周新高,这类账户在最新统计周期内又一次进行了多空双向同步增持,多空持仓比数值仍然没有出现明显波动,但是这类账户连续两周大幅加仓,多空双向持仓纷纷创出近三个月乃至半年以上新高,大型机构对于短期市场的参与热度明显上升,延续了前一统计周期中性偏多的思路。



资管机构多头头寸自 8383 上升至 9181,空头头寸自 25 下降至 0,资管机构在最新统计周期内又一次进行了清晰的净多调仓,继续巩固近期保持的坚定看涨思路。


 

杠杆基金多头头寸自 3536 上升至 4780,空头头寸自 11489 上升至 11822,该数值进一步刷新历史高点水平,这类账户在最新统计周期内又一次进行了多空双向同步增持,整体数值变化与前一统计周期相似,空头头寸继续刷新历史高点水平但是多单持仓占比大幅上升,杠杆基金短期内的调仓虽然还是略显纠结,但是持续的增持一定程度上表达出了相对积极的态度。

 

 

大户账户多头头寸自 3021 下降至 2450,空头头寸自 1231 上升至 1358,该数值续刷近 29 周新高,这类账户在最新统计周期内进行了清晰的净空调仓,在过去一段时间里一直缺乏方向感的背景下,大户账户在最新统计周期内果断做空,也成为了短期内为数不多明确看空后市的一类账户,这种判断是否具有延续性,值得未来几周持续关注。


 

散户多头头寸自 1617 下降至 1468,空头头寸自 725 下降至 625,散户在最新统计周期内进行了多空双向同步减持,行情一波上涨后的横盘过程中,散户账户的选择明显偏保守,这类账户进行了比较明确的获利减持,散户在最新统计周期内的调仓无疑是最「怂」的选择。


 

比特币微型合约总持仓量自 10260 下降至 7862。

 

 

经销商账户多头头寸自 1290 下降至 317,空头头寸自 954 上升至 4088,这类账户在微型合约中进行了清晰的净空调仓,且空头头寸增持幅度非常可观,这类账户在标准合约进行了中性偏多调仓的背景下,在微型合约中如此激进的净空调仓,在进行风险对冲的同时也值得被重视,可以认为大型机构对于后市进一步走强的判断仍然有所保留,至少目前没有表现出强烈看涨的状态。


 

 

资管机构账户多头头寸自 335 上升至 1070,空头头寸自 548 下降至 0,资管机构在微型合约中又一次进行了清晰的净多调仓,进一步巩固了这类账户的看涨坚定程度。


 

杠杆基金多头头寸自 2943 下降至 1229,空头头寸自 5822 下降至 1959,杠杆基金在最新统计周期内进行了多空双向同步减持,有效信息仍然有限。


 

大户多头头寸自 1731 上升至 2049,空头头寸自 913 下降至 681,这类账户在最新统计周期内进行了净多调仓,配合标准合约的调仓思路来看,属于经典的对冲操作,不影响标准合约的偏空判断。


 

散户多头头寸自 3162 下降至 2985,空头头寸自 1224 下降至 922。


 

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