In terms of BTC price trend, the price in the weekly K-line chart fell below the middle rail of brin line and continued to run towards the 50% split line of Fibonacci. Due to the relatively low trading volume, there is little room for BTC price to increase since 2022. The longer the duration of contraction adjustment, the greater the possibility of falling below the cost price of investors. If BTC breaks the position of US $40000 again, it will further fall below the average cost price of investors in one year and push the price back down.
At present, what deserves attention is the trading leverage ratio of investors and the resulting price fluctuation risk. Considering the huge profits of long-term currency investors, the increase of price fluctuation will accelerate the profit taking of these investors, thus greatly prolonging the bear market cycle.
In terms of important segmentation lines, the closing price support level of weekly level is $36077 corresponding to 50% of Fibonacci. The corresponding USD 28307 of 61.8% in Fibonacci is the lowest price support line confirmed in mid-2021.
BTC leverage
As the number of BTC spot in the exchange continues to decrease, the position of BTC contract traders is large, and the corresponding trading leverage is still at a high level. Therefore, once the fluctuation of BTC price changes continues, it will easily promote the increase of hold up plate, so as to continuously strengthen the intensity of price fluctuation. At present, the long capacity of BTC is still insufficient, and any continued gap in capital will significantly depress the price of BTC.
On April 10, BTC estimated that the leverage ratio reached the highest value of 0.24 since 2020, indicating that the market has been in a high-risk changing state. If the high leverage ratio remains high, the possibility of BTC price falling down will be significantly increased.
Trading profit of BTC long-term investors
If the investors holding money for more than 155 trading days are long-term investors, their trading profit performance indicates the price trend. The SOPR proportion of long-term investors is currently at a high level of 1.4, indicating that the trading profit space of long-term investors is more than 40%. There is more profit space for long-term investors, and there are more profit-making transactions in the past two months, which improves the adjustment space of BTC. The SOPR index of long-term investors has frequently and continuously peaked since February 1, which means that the number of profitable transactions has increased significantly. The market trend further reflects the selling pressure of these investors.
BTC position explosion amount
In terms of the amount of position explosion, the scale of long position explosion of BTC has increased significantly recently, while the number of short position explosion is limited. On April 6 and 11, the scale of long position explosion reached US $101 million and US $146 million respectively. During this period, BTC decreased by 5.12% and 6.25% respectively. The rapid increase in the number of position bursts means that the selling pressure continues to rise.
From the perspective of reducing leverage and profit space, BTC's adjustment expectation is still relatively strong. In terms of currency holding, medium and long-term currency holding investors are still stable, but the trading activity is low. Under the weak market, BTC is more likely to break and fall, so the judgment of point position can not be limited to the existing support line. The situation of falling below $40000 can be further fixed investment and low absorption.
In terms of spot selling performance, in the pressure of spot selling on April 10, the proportion of transactions from the main force soared to 0.792, the highest peak in two years, indicating that the decline of BTC is not beyond. Among the top 10 selling pressure of BTC, the main force accounts for nearly 80%, and the market is on the edge of breaking.
In combination with the high leverage mentioned above, and BTC's low spot trading volume and number of active addresses, it is not difficult for the weak market to break the position of $40000. In response to price pullback, in addition to passive low absorption, the decline in the scale of profit taking and the decline in leverage are important signals to judge the bottom.
