高盛:因为银行危机,美联储3月不会再加息

华尔街见闻Publicado a 2023-03-13Actualizado a 2023-03-13

Resumen

高盛预计美联储3月不会再加息,5月、6月和7月加息25个基点的预期不变,预计终端利率较此前下降25个基点至5.25-5.5%。

硅谷银行爆雷短短几天,市场情绪急转直下,美联储加息预期迅速降温,高盛甚至第一个喊出3月不加息。

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高盛在最新发布的报告中指出,硅谷银行风波让鲍威尔意识到了加息对美国银行系统的压力,因此,预计美联储不会3月FOMC会议上加息。但同时,考虑到3月后,美国经济前景依然存在相当大的不确定性,维持美联储将在5月、6月和7月加息25个基点的预期不变,预计终端利率较此前下降25个基点至5.25-5.5%。

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“新美联储通讯社”Nick Timiraos认为,硅谷银行倒闭引发的风波却大幅打消了市场对于50基点加息的预期。芝商所美联储观察工具显示,市场认为,3月加息50基点的概率已经从上周四的70%降至0,加息25基点的概率升至95%,维持利率不变的概率则升至5%。

同时,市场正押注硅谷银行、Silvergate和Signature三家银行的倒闭将使美联储大幅放缓加息,2年期美债收益率3天内跌超50个基点。华尔街定价联邦基金利率最后将升至5.1%-5.7%的区间。

不过,小摩认为,既然联储有决心动用金融工具BTFP救市,也同样有决心继续加息以遏制通胀风险。因此,小摩预计联储仍会在下周会议上加息25个基点。

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