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On April 30, analysts Anna and Stuart pointed out that the decision to maintain interest rates was expected, but what stood out were the dissenting opinions. Ironically, Jerome Powell, who is widely seen as a consensus builder, led the meeting with the highest number of dissenters, likely during his last meeting as Fed Chair. The policy statement also elevated the description of inflation from 'somewhat elevated' to 'elevated.' Coupled with the evident divisions within the committee, this highlights the challenges Kevin Waller faces in achieving the rate cut goals desired by Trump. Unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market, it is hard to imagine this divided committee taking action to cut rates anytime soon.

[Analysts: Fed's Unexpected Divisions Pose Challenges for Waller]On April 30, analysts Anna and Stuart pointed out that the decision to maintain interest rates was expected, but what stood out were the dissenting opinions. Ironically, Jerome Powell, who is widely seen as a consensus builder, led the meeting with the highest number of dissenters, likely during his last meeting as Fed Chair. The policy statement also elevated the description of inflation from 'somewhat elevated' to 'elevated.' Coupled with the evident divisions within the committee, this highlights the challenges Kevin Waller faces in achieving the rate cut goals desired by Trump. Unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market, it is hard to imagine this divided committee taking action to cut rates anytime soon.

Analysts: Fed's Unexpected Divisions Pose Challenges for Waller

On April 30, sources revealed that Anthropic has begun planning a new round of financing, which could raise the company's valuation to over $900 billion, potentially making it the most valuable AI startup in the world, surpassing OpenAI. According to insiders, Anthropic's management is considering numerous investment proposals from investors, which could more than double the company's current valuation. These considerations are still in very early stages, and the company has not yet accepted any investment proposals. Previously, Anthropic rejected new investment proposals from investors that valued the company at over $800 billion.

[Anthropic's Valuation May Exceed $900 Billion, Surpassing OpenAI]On April 30, sources revealed that Anthropic has begun planning a new round of financing, which could raise the company's valuation to over $900 billion, potentially making it the most valuable AI startup in the world, surpassing OpenAI. According to insiders, Anthropic's management is considering numerous investment proposals from investors, which could more than double the company's current valuation. These considerations are still in very early stages, and the company has not yet accepted any investment proposals. Previously, Anthropic rejected new investment proposals from investors that valued the company at over $800 billion.

Anthropic's Valuation May Exceed $900 Billion, Surpassing OpenAI

On April 30, Meta partnered with Stripe to launch a stablecoin payment feature for creators, supporting Circle's USDC. Initially, the feature will be implemented for creators in Colombia and the Philippines, based on the Solana and Polygon blockchain networks.

[Meta Launches Stablecoin Payment Feature for Creators in Partnership with Stripe]On April 30, Meta partnered with Stripe to launch a stablecoin payment feature for creators, supporting Circle's USDC. Initially, the feature will be implemented for creators in Colombia and the Philippines, based on the Solana and Polygon blockchain networks.

Meta Launches Stablecoin Payment Feature for Creators in Partnership with Stripe

On April 30, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement: 
1. The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate range at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive announcement this year to keep rates unchanged. 
2. The voting results for this policy decision were 8 to 4: Milan voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut; Hamack, Kashkari, and Logan also voted against, opposing the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. 
3. The Federal Reserve described inflation as 'still elevated,' rather than 'slightly elevated' as previously stated, due to global energy prices. 
4. The Federal Reserve aims to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term, with developments in the Middle East exacerbating the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The committee is attentive to the dual risks facing its dual mandate. 
5. The Federal Reserve indicated that recent indicators show economic activity expanding at a solid pace. Job growth has remained low on average, while the unemployment rate has seen little change in recent months. 
6. The Federal Reserve stated that when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess the latest data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. 
Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks: 
1. The current policy stance is appropriate and supports the achievement of the Federal Reserve's policy goals; the current stance is well-suited for waiting. 
2. The number of officials supporting a shift towards a neutral bias has increased; perhaps the next meeting will consider changing the current easing bias, and rate guidance may change at the next meeting. 
3. If we need to raise rates, we will certainly signal that; currently, no one is calling for a rate hike. 
4. Both aspects of the dual mandate face risks, with long-term inflation expectations aligned with the 2% target. The goal is to gradually bring inflation down to 2% while minimizing harm as much as possible. 
5. After his term as Federal Reserve Chair ends on May 15, he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor. 
6. Job growth is slow, the unemployment rate has not changed much, and consumer spending remains resilient; developments in the Middle East bring high uncertainty. 
7. The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing threats, and the boundaries between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury need to be respected. If the Federal Reserve makes politically colored decisions, the market will lose confidence.

[Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Powell's Key Remarks: Rates Unchanged, Powell to Remain as Governor After Term Ends]On April 30, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement: 
1. The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate range at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive announcement this year to keep rates unchanged. 
2. The voting results for this policy decision were 8 to 4: Milan voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut; Hamack, Kashkari, and Logan also voted against, opposing the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. 
3. The Federal Reserve described inflation as 'still elevated,' rather than 'slightly elevated' as previously stated, due to global energy prices. 
4. The Federal Reserve aims to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term, with developments in the Middle East exacerbating the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The committee is attentive to the dual risks facing its dual mandate. 
5. The Federal Reserve indicated that recent indicators show economic activity expanding at a solid pace. Job growth has remained low on average, while the unemployment rate has seen little change in recent months. 
6. The Federal Reserve stated that when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess the latest data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. 
Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks: 
1. The current policy stance is appropriate and supports the achievement of the Federal Reserve's policy goals; the current stance is well-suited for waiting. 
2. The number of officials supporting a shift towards a neutral bias has increased; perhaps the next meeting will consider changing the current easing bias, and rate guidance may change at the next meeting. 
3. If we need to raise rates, we will certainly signal that; currently, no one is calling for a rate hike. 
4. Both aspects of the dual mandate face risks, with long-term inflation expectations aligned with the 2% target. The goal is to gradually bring inflation down to 2% while minimizing harm as much as possible. 
5. After his term as Federal Reserve Chair ends on May 15, he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor. 
6. Job growth is slow, the unemployment rate has not changed much, and consumer spending remains resilient; developments in the Middle East bring high uncertainty. 
7. The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing threats, and the boundaries between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury need to be respected. If the Federal Reserve makes politically colored decisions, the market will lose confidence.

Federal Reserve FOMC Statement and Powell's Key Remarks: Rates Unchanged, Powell to Remain as Governor After Term Ends

As of April 30, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 98.6% (down from 98.8% prior to the decision), while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 1.4% (down from 1.2% prior to the decision). The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 96.5% (up from 94.6% prior to the decision), with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 3.4% (down from 5.4% prior to the decision). The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in September is 96.1% (up from 92.7% prior to the decision), with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 3.8% (down from 7.2% prior to the decision).

[Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in June at 98.6%]As of April 30, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 98.6% (down from 98.8% prior to the decision), while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 1.4% (down from 1.2% prior to the decision). The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 96.5% (up from 94.6% prior to the decision), with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 3.4% (down from 5.4% prior to the decision). The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in September is 96.1% (up from 92.7% prior to the decision), with a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut probability of 3.8% (down from 7.2% prior to the decision).

Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in June at 98.6%

On April 30, JP Powers, Chief Investment Officer of Rwa Wealth Partners, stated, "This is the first time in over 30 years that there are so many dissenters; it's truly a crazy time. Milan is somewhat unconventional, as he wishes to further cut rates at this time. I am certain that, with oil prices back above $100, it will be quite difficult for the committee to reach any consensus on this matter. Additionally, with Powell's transition period, pushing for such measures is already quite challenging. Interestingly, the other three members are even reluctant to retain any dovish stance in the statement, which may be the crux of the issue."

[Analyst: Rare Disagreement Emerges Within the Federal Reserve, Achieving Consensus May Be Challenging]On April 30, JP Powers, Chief Investment Officer of Rwa Wealth Partners, stated, "This is the first time in over 30 years that there are so many dissenters; it's truly a crazy time. Milan is somewhat unconventional, as he wishes to further cut rates at this time. I am certain that, with oil prices back above $100, it will be quite difficult for the committee to reach any consensus on this matter. Additionally, with Powell's transition period, pushing for such measures is already quite challenging. Interestingly, the other three members are even reluctant to retain any dovish stance in the statement, which may be the crux of the issue."

Analyst: Rare Disagreement Emerges Within the Federal Reserve, Achieving Consensus May Be Challenging

On April 30, analyst Anstey pointed out that we seem to be in a new realm that requires more time to understand the current situation. It is important to note that the only dissenting opinion regarding the interest rate decision came from Milan, who wishes to lower the rate by 0.25 percentage points. The other three members, Harmack, Kashkari, and Logan, believe that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate. Interestingly, these three members who disagree with the policy stance essentially interpret this statement as leaning towards easing. Because, literally, it is clearly neutral: the committee will adjust its monetary policy stance as necessary based on actual circumstances to guard against risks that may hinder the achievement of the committee's goals. The 'goals' are, of course, to maintain price stability and achieve full employment. However, in my view, these three seem to believe that this statement primarily pertains to the employment aspect of the mandate.

[Analyst: Federal Reserve Appears to Enter New Phase with Complex Divergences]On April 30, analyst Anstey pointed out that we seem to be in a new realm that requires more time to understand the current situation. It is important to note that the only dissenting opinion regarding the interest rate decision came from Milan, who wishes to lower the rate by 0.25 percentage points. The other three members, Harmack, Kashkari, and Logan, believe that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate. Interestingly, these three members who disagree with the policy stance essentially interpret this statement as leaning towards easing. Because, literally, it is clearly neutral: the committee will adjust its monetary policy stance as necessary based on actual circumstances to guard against risks that may hinder the achievement of the committee's goals. The 'goals' are, of course, to maintain price stability and achieve full employment. However, in my view, these three seem to believe that this statement primarily pertains to the employment aspect of the mandate.

Analyst: Federal Reserve Appears to Enter New Phase with Complex Divergences

On April 30, after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, US Treasury yields increased. The Fed noted in its most divisive decision since 1992 that market concerns about inflation are intensifying. The policy statement faced opposition from three officials who argued that the Fed should no longer signal a tendency to lower rates. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically fluctuates in sync with Fed rate expectations, rose by 7.8 basis points to 3.92%, the highest level since March 27.

[US Treasury Yields Rise Following Hawkish Fed Statement]On April 30, after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, US Treasury yields increased. The Fed noted in its most divisive decision since 1992 that market concerns about inflation are intensifying. The policy statement faced opposition from three officials who argued that the Fed should no longer signal a tendency to lower rates. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically fluctuates in sync with Fed rate expectations, rose by 7.8 basis points to 3.92%, the highest level since March 27.

US Treasury Yields Rise Following Hawkish Fed Statement

On April 30, according to the Wall Street Journal, after some hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, Wall Street traders are betting on a possible rate hike by the Fed this year, although the likelihood remains low. CME's interest rate futures data shows that traders believe there is an 11% chance of a rate hike this year, up from 5% earlier that day and 0% on Tuesday, while the chance of a rate cut hovers around 2%.

[Market Pricing Indicates Higher Likelihood of Fed Rate Hike than Cut This Year]On April 30, according to the Wall Street Journal, after some hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, Wall Street traders are betting on a possible rate hike by the Fed this year, although the likelihood remains low. CME's interest rate futures data shows that traders believe there is an 11% chance of a rate hike this year, up from 5% earlier that day and 0% on Tuesday, while the chance of a rate cut hovers around 2%.

Market Pricing Indicates Higher Likelihood of Fed Rate Hike than Cut This Year

On April 29, the US Dollar Index rose 0.15% on April 28, closing at 98.639 in the foreign exchange market.

[US Dollar Index Rises 0.15% on April 28]On April 29, the US Dollar Index rose 0.15% on April 28, closing at 98.639 in the foreign exchange market.

US Dollar Index Rises 0.15% on April 28

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