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On July 14, according to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 83.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 16.6%. For September, the probability of the Fed maintaining current rates is 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 8.6%.

[After CPI Data, Fed's Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged in July at 83.4%]On July 14, according to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 83.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 16.6%. For September, the probability of the Fed maintaining current rates is 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 8.6%.

After CPI Data, Fed's Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged in July at 83.4%

On July 14, U.S. consumer prices declined for the first time in six years in June, and a key measure of underlying inflation was largely flat, which somewhat eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% year-over-year. The core index, excluding food and energy, was flat from May and rose 2.6% year-over-year. The report shows that as the worst of the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war began to fade, falling gasoline prices in June provided some relief for consumers. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting later this month, officials may welcome this data; however, a resurgence in U.S.-Iran hostilities leading to another rise in oil prices could prolong the inflationary impact of the conflict. U.S. stock index futures rose and Treasury yields fell as investors reduced bets on a Fed rate hike in July. Data shows that the core inflation indicator was subdued, mainly due to declines in prices for goods such as clothing and used cars. Motor vehicle insurance premiums also fell significantly.

[U.S. CPI Falls for First Time Since 2020, Core Indicator Flat]On July 14, U.S. consumer prices declined for the first time in six years in June, and a key measure of underlying inflation was largely flat, which somewhat eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% year-over-year. The core index, excluding food and energy, was flat from May and rose 2.6% year-over-year. The report shows that as the worst of the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war began to fade, falling gasoline prices in June provided some relief for consumers. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting later this month, officials may welcome this data; however, a resurgence in U.S.-Iran hostilities leading to another rise in oil prices could prolong the inflationary impact of the conflict. U.S. stock index futures rose and Treasury yields fell as investors reduced bets on a Fed rate hike in July. Data shows that the core inflation indicator was subdued, mainly due to declines in prices for goods such as clothing and used cars. Motor vehicle insurance premiums also fell significantly.

U.S. CPI Falls for First Time Since 2020, Core Indicator Flat

On July 14, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh stated that AI opportunities pose challenges for policymakers. He is monitoring the impact of AI on inflation and the labor market.

[Walsh: AI Opportunities Pose Challenges for Policymakers]On July 14, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh stated that AI opportunities pose challenges for policymakers. He is monitoring the impact of AI on inflation and the labor market.

Walsh: AI Opportunities Pose Challenges for Policymakers

On July 14, market pricing showed that bets on a Fed rate hike this month were lowered.

[Market Pricing Shows Fed Rate Hike Bets This Month Lowered]On July 14, market pricing showed that bets on a Fed rate hike this month were lowered.

Market Pricing Shows Fed Rate Hike Bets This Month Lowered

On July 14, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh stated that the Fed has 'zero tolerance' for persistent high inflation. The labor market remains broadly stable, with nominal wage growth steady. The U.S. economy is resilient and growing steadily.

[Walsh: Fed Has 'Zero Tolerance' for Persistent High Inflation]On July 14, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh stated that the Fed has 'zero tolerance' for persistent high inflation. The labor market remains broadly stable, with nominal wage growth steady. The U.S. economy is resilient and growing steadily.

Walsh: Fed Has 'Zero Tolerance' for Persistent High Inflation

Fed Chair Warsh: The opportunities of AI pose challenges for policymakers. We are monitoring AI's impact on inflation and the labor market.

[Fed Chair Warsh: Monitoring AI's Impact on Inflation and Labor Market]Fed Chair Warsh: The opportunities of AI pose challenges for policymakers. We are monitoring AI's impact on inflation and the labor market.

Fed Chair Warsh: Monitoring AI's Impact on Inflation and Labor Market

On July 14, spot gold broke through $4,100, rising 2.41% intraday. Spot silver's intraday gain expanded to 3%, quoted at $59.4 per ounce.

[Spot Gold Breaks Through $4,100]On July 14, spot gold broke through $4,100, rising 2.41% intraday. Spot silver's intraday gain expanded to 3%, quoted at $59.4 per ounce.

Spot Gold Breaks Through $4,100

On July 14, the US June unadjusted CPI annual rate recorded 3.5% (previous value 4.2%), with market expectations at 3.8%; the US June seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate recorded -0.4%, the largest decline since April 2020. (Jinshi)

[US June Unadjusted CPI Annual Rate 3.5%, Expected 3.8%]On July 14, the US June unadjusted CPI annual rate recorded 3.5% (previous value 4.2%), with market expectations at 3.8%; the US June seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate recorded -0.4%, the largest decline since April 2020. (Jinshi)

US June Unadjusted CPI Annual Rate 3.5%, Expected 3.8%

On July 14, according to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks $65,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.019 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $61,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.109 billion. BlockBeats note: The liquidation chart does not show the exact number of contracts to be liquidated or the precise value of contracts being liquidated. The bars on the liquidation chart represent the importance of each liquidation cluster relative to neighboring clusters, i.e., the intensity. Therefore, the liquidation chart shows the extent to which the price reaching a certain level will be affected. A higher 'liquidation bar' indicates a stronger reaction due to a wave of liquidity when the price reaches that level.

[If Bitcoin Breaks $65,000, Cumulative Short Liquidation Intensity on Major CEXs Will Reach $1.019 Billion]On July 14, according to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks $65,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.019 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $61,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.109 billion. BlockBeats note: The liquidation chart does not show the exact number of contracts to be liquidated or the precise value of contracts being liquidated. The bars on the liquidation chart represent the importance of each liquidation cluster relative to neighboring clusters, i.e., the intensity. Therefore, the liquidation chart shows the extent to which the price reaching a certain level will be affected. A higher 'liquidation bar' indicates a stronger reaction due to a wave of liquidity when the price reaches that level.

If Bitcoin Breaks $65,000, Cumulative Short Liquidation Intensity on Major CEXs Will Reach $1.019 Billion

Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that there is still considerable doubt about the need for a central bank digital currency. It is highly unlikely that the Fed will turn to rate cuts next year. The more likely scenario is that we raise interest rates and then leave them there. It may take several years to bring inflation back to 2%.

Detail

【Fed's Kashkari sees little chance of Fed turning to rate cuts next year】Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that there is still considerable doubt about the need for a central bank digital currency. It is highly unlikely that the Fed will turn to rate cuts next year. The more likely scenario is that we raise interest rates and then leave them there. It may take several years to bring inflation back to 2%.

Fed's Kashkari sees little chance of Fed turning to rate cuts next year

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Fed's Kashkari sees little chance of Fed turning to rate cuts next year

Descargo de responsabilidad：El contenido anterior no representa las posiciones de HTX.，HTX no ofrece ninguna recomendación de trading.。

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