# Market Cycle Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Market Cycle", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Bitcoin Vs. The S&P: How The Stock Market Predicts The BTC Bottom Before the Rally

Analyst Chain Mind correlates Bitcoin's bottom with the S&P 500's performance, noting BTC has historically not bottomed before the stock market. With the S&P 500 still reaching new all-time highs without a significant retrace, Chain Mind argues Bitcoin's final low is likely not yet in. He suggests the S&P is showing classic topping signals, implying a market dump is imminent, which would precede a BTC bottom. Further analysis points to Bitcoin potentially forming a Head-and-Shoulders topping pattern on charts. Analyst Colin notes a break below the pattern's neckline could target $65,000 or lower. Chain Mind also observes a weekly Head-and-Shoulders, expecting a dump to mark a final bottom around $50,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $75,500, down over 24 hours.

bitcoinist8h ago

Bitcoin Vs. The S&P: How The Stock Market Predicts The BTC Bottom Before the Rally

bitcoinist8h ago

How To Play The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle For The Most Gains In The Bull Market

A crypto analyst argues that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still active, despite recent market debates suggesting it may be over. By examining past cycles from 2011-2014, 2015-2018, and 2019-2022, the analyst identifies a consistent pattern: a "Buy" year with declining prices, a "Hold" year of rising prices, a "Sell" year near the peak, and a final "Bear" year of market crash. The analyst applies this model to the current cycle, positioning 2023 as the Buy phase, 2024 as Hold, 2025 as Sell, and 2026 as the ongoing Bear phase, explaining Bitcoin's recent sideways and declining price action. Looking ahead, the analyst predicts the 2027-2030 cycle will follow the same pattern, with the next major accumulation opportunity potentially arriving in 2027. The conclusion is that the four-year cycle structure remains intact and is playing out as expected.

bitcoinist2 days ago 23:32

How To Play The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle For The Most Gains In The Bull Market

bitcoinist2 days ago 23:32

Everyone Is Calling For Lower Bitcoin Price: Why This Is The Perfect Time To Go Parabolic

Crypto analyst Crypto Fergani argues that despite widespread bearish sentiment and calls for lower targets following Bitcoin's recent volatility, conditions are actually ripe for a parabolic surge. He points to major institutional accumulation and growing adoption as bullish fundamentals, dismissing the idea of an ongoing bear market. Comparing the current cycle to 2022, he predicts Bitcoin could rally over 72% from current levels above $74,000 toward $128,000, with altcoins potentially seeing massive gains. This contrasts with other analysts like Bee, who foresee a deeper correction toward $47,000-$52,000 as the final bottom before a new bull cycle begins.

bitcoinist05/24 10:43

Everyone Is Calling For Lower Bitcoin Price: Why This Is The Perfect Time To Go Parabolic

bitcoinist05/24 10:43

Hope For Altcoin Season: The Bitcoin Move That Could Kickstart Everything

"Hope For Altcoin Season: The Bitcoin Move That Could Kickstart Everything" analyzes the potential for a new altcoin season. Despite prolonged underperformance against Bitcoin and a low Altcoin Season Index, analysis from Cryptollica suggests altcoin dominance is currently at a long-term floor within a rising channel dating to 2017—a level from which past major altcoin rotations in 2017 and 2021 began. However, a confirmed breakout requires specific signals currently absent: ETH/BTC needs to bottom, and stablecoin liquidity must grow as Bitcoin dominance declines. While not yet showing strength, the current setup is described as a "waiting room" rather than a dead market. If altcoin dominance breaks out to the channel's upper trendline, the total market cap of altcoins outside the top 10 could surge significantly relative to Bitcoin's.

bitcoinist05/23 04:01

Hope For Altcoin Season: The Bitcoin Move That Could Kickstart Everything

bitcoinist05/23 04:01

Bitcoin Is Only One Leg From Hitting A Bottom, But How Low Can It Go?

Crypto analyst Bee forecasts a major Bitcoin price bottom is imminent. Despite a recent rally above $83,000, Bee contends BTC remains in a broader bear market, viewing the gains as a temporary bounce within a long-term descending channel. The analysis shows BTC forming lower highs and lower lows since its October 2025 all-time high above $126,200. Following a recent rejection around $83,000, which is marked as another lower high, Bee predicts Bitcoin's price could decline to approximately $43,035, representing a drop of over 45%. The analyst notes that typical bear market cycles last 365 days, and with the current cycle only on day 217, more downside is expected. Only after this final bottom is formed does Bee anticipate a sustained recovery, projecting a potential rally back to $100,000 by 2027.

bitcoinist05/15 04:03

Bitcoin Is Only One Leg From Hitting A Bottom, But How Low Can It Go?

bitcoinist05/15 04:03

Countdown to the AI Bull Market? Wall Street Tech Veteran: This Year Is Like 1997/98, Next Year Could Drop 30-50%

"AI Bull Market Countdown? Wall Street Veteran: This Year Feels Like 1997/98, Next Year Could Drop 30-50%" In an interview, veteran tech analyst Dan Niles draws parallels between the current AI boom and the 1997-98 period of the internet boom, suggesting the bull run isn't over yet. The core new driver is identified as "Agentic AI," which performs multi-step tasks and consumes vastly more computing power than conversational AI. This shift is expected to boost demand for cloud infrastructure and benefit CPU makers like Intel and AMD, potentially pressuring GPU leader Nvidia. However, Niles warns of significant short-term overbought conditions in semiconductors. His central warning is for a potential major market correction of 30-50% starting in early 2027. Drivers include a slowdown from high growth comparables, the outsized capital demands of companies like OpenAI, and a wave of massive tech IPOs sucking liquidity from the market. A J.P. Morgan survey of 56 global investors aligns with this view, finding that 54% expect a >30% U.S. stock correction by 2027. Among mega-cap tech, Niles favors Google due to its full-stack AI capabilities and cash flow, expresses concern about Meta's user growth, and sees potential for Apple's AI Siri and foldable iPhone. Niles advises investors to be nimble, hold significant cash, and closely monitor the conflicting signals from equities, oil prices, and bond yields, which he believes cannot all be correct simultaneously.

marsbit05/13 08:33

Countdown to the AI Bull Market? Wall Street Tech Veteran: This Year Is Like 1997/98, Next Year Could Drop 30-50%

marsbit05/13 08:33

Trader Taiki's Self-Description: Bitcoin is Brewing a 'God-Level Bullish Candle', While Also Making a Small Position Bet on Zcash

Title: Why Bitcoin is About to Print A God Candle In this episode, Taiki Maeda argues Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a significant upward move ("god candle"), driven by exhausted marginal sellers and renewed structural buying, particularly from Michael Saylor's STRC. He believes the traditional four-year cycle narrative may fail this time as bearish sentiment peaked even below levels seen after major crashes. Saylor’s predictable, large monthly BTC purchases via STRC create a reflexive cycle: buying pushes BTC price higher, boosting MSTR's valuation and enabling further financing and purchases. Taiki is shifting from a mid-curve, risk-averse mindset to also allocate a small position towards high-reflexivity assets like Zcash (ZEC), whose narrative strengthens with price appreciation. He expects the bull market to unfold with BTC leading, restoring overall market confidence before capital rotates into higher-beta altcoins later. His strategy involves holding significant BTC spot, some leveraged positions (to be reduced), and participating in related DeFi farming, emphasizing long-term holding over frequent trading for sustainable returns.

marsbit05/09 03:06

Trader Taiki's Self-Description: Bitcoin is Brewing a 'God-Level Bullish Candle', While Also Making a Small Position Bet on Zcash

marsbit05/09 03:06

How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?

This article analyzes the formation of Bitcoin's bear market "bottom structure" by examining the relationship between cost basis and price action, particularly the behavior of short-term holders (STH). Historically, the cost basis of coins held for 1-3 months (1-3m_RP) has acted as a key resistance level during bear market rallies. This group's supply is often less committed; many entered the market expecting quick gains but were trapped. When the price rebounds to their break-even point, they tend to sell, creating resistance. Data shows that as of mid-April, the 1-3m_RP is approximately $75,400, a level Bitcoin is currently testing for the second time this cycle. The first test in mid-January failed, leading to a pullback. The author suggests a high probability of a similar outcome this time, as historical cycles show the second test rarely results in an immediate reversal. An alternative, less likely scenario is a break above this level, only to face stronger resistance at the broader STH-RP (average cost basis for all short-term holders) near $81,000, where a much larger supply of 2.31 million BTC resides. This could lead to price consolidation around the 1-3m_RP. A definitive bottom structure is confirmed only when the 1-3m_RP trend reverses from down to up, signaling a transition from a bear to a bull market. This process takes time, requiring patience to observe whether breakouts are genuine.

marsbit04/16 05:54

How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?

marsbit04/16 05:54

Finance CEO Raoul Pal Calls The Bitcoin Peak, And You Won’t Believe The Numbers

Financial economist and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal remains highly bullish on Bitcoin despite recent market weakness. He challenges the traditional four-year cycle theory, arguing that Bitcoin is in a five-year supercycle and has not yet reached its peak. Pal projects that Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high of around $140,000 by the second quarter of 2026. He attributes the extended cycle to reduced global liquidity and believes the current bear market has not truly begun, leaving room for further upward movement. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades above $68,500, meaning a rally to $140,000 would represent a gain of over 100%.

bitcoinist04/07 17:01

Finance CEO Raoul Pal Calls The Bitcoin Peak, And You Won’t Believe The Numbers

bitcoinist04/07 17:01

Altcoin season index sits at 32: ‘Still in the gutter,’ believes expert

In a recent analysis, CoinGecko highlighted that the altcoin market remains in a prolonged slump, with the Altcoin Season Index at 32, indicating continued Bitcoin dominance. Historically, capital rotated from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to altcoins after Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH). However, this cycle has diverged due to the influence of Bitcoin ETFs approved in 2024, which have concentrated institutional investment in Bitcoin rather than spreading to altcoins. Despite Bitcoin hitting an ATH of $126,000 in October 2025, altcoins have underperformed. Some in the crypto community anticipate an altseason, but key indicators suggest otherwise. Bitcoin's dominance remains strong, and altcoins like Dogecoin, Solana, and Cardano have not trended positively. Santiment’s Weighted Sentiment analysis shows Bitcoin as the only cryptocurrency with positive sentiment, while altcoins linger in negative territory. Additionally, the RSI for most tokens, including Bitcoin, is below the neutral 50-level, reflecting bearish market conditions. On-chain data remains pessimistic, contradicting optimistic analyst predictions for an imminent altseason.

ambcrypto04/07 06:50

Altcoin season index sits at 32: ‘Still in the gutter,’ believes expert

ambcrypto04/07 06:50

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