Author: Jake Pahor
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Introduction: Bitcoin is once again approaching the 50-week moving average, a level where three historical bear markets ended. This article uses complete data since 2012 to analyze the validity of this signal, provides a current score compared to historical cases, and offers a valuable review for investors trying to pinpoint the bottom.
I returned from a week of fishing to find the busiest desk since January.
Not with trading, but with paperwork. People were rushing to open accounts, complete verifications, and deposit funds, while Bitcoin surged 22.8% for the week, marking its biggest weekly gain since March 2023. A few weeks ago, I wrote that the time to get your affairs in order is before the market moves. This week, that was no longer theoretical.
Now the entire market is fixated on one level. Tonight's content is about that level: where bear markets have ended three times, and one time it fooled everyone.
The CSH Score is currently 37.6. Mid-cycle, up 5.4 this week. The practical meaning: my plan stopped buying on August 22nd when the score climbed back above 30 after 79 consecutive days below it. This isn't me making a judgment; it's the plan executing the rules it was written with.
Check today's score position
CSH Risk Dashboard
CSH Score: 37.6, mid-cycle, +5.4 this week (+16.8%)
Percentile: Lowest 33% of all readings since 2012
Bitcoin: $78,153 ($109,002 AUD), +0.47% this week after last week's +22.8%
Day 327 since the October peak; the current low for this bear market is $58,551 on July 1st, a 53.1% drawdown
This bear market has seen 115 days with CSH Score at or below 30, all within the 20–30 range. The CSH Score has never fallen below 20.
Score change means: When above 30, my DCA pauses; when it returns below 30, it mechanically resumes; below 20 triggers the backup cash tier. The score moved, the plan gave the answer, I went fishing.
Has This Happened Before? The 50-Week MA Test
Bitcoin's 50-week moving average is currently around $81,000. The price touched this line on Friday before pulling back about 3% below it. If you've been through a cycle or two in crypto, you know why everyone is watching this: In bull markets, it's where pullbacks bounce; in bear markets, it's where rallies die.
So I scoured the complete score history, all 5322 days back to 2012, and pulled out every instance of a bear market ending. Three times total: 2015, 2018–19, 2022–23. I wanted to honestly answer the question half the trading desk asked me this week: Has this happened before? And what happened next?
Here are the answers from history.
The past three bear markets ended the same way: with the first weekly close back above the 50-week moving average after the low.
October 25, 2015.
May 5, 2019.
March 19, 2023.
Three different bear markets, three different worlds. The same signal. All three shared a common follow-through: the price never had a weekly close back below that line in the next six months. The bear market lows were never revisited. Twelve months later, Bitcoin had gained 55%, 128%, and 141% respectively from the closing price that reclaimed the line.
One detail I didn't expect: On March 19, 2023, the most recent reclaim week, the weekly candle closed up +32.1%. The biggest weekly gain since then? Last week's +22.8%. The market rhymes so loudly it's worth saying out loud.
Now for the part most analyses skip.
There is only one false signal in the entire dataset. April 3, 2022: a mid-bear market weekly close above the 50-week MA. It failed the very next week, with the final low arriving seven months later, 64% lower.
The difference between that false break and the three true ones isn't on the price chart, but in the score. At that April 2022 close, the CSH Score was 65.4. There was no capitulation selling behind it; price was still expensive relative to its own cycle. The three true reclaims all came from score bottoms of 22.1, 14.6, and 2.3, with reclaim week scores of 47.5, 41.9, and 19.5.
Today: Score 37.6, rebounding from a bottom of 20.6. This is the shape of a true signal, not a false one.
So is the low confirmed? Before anyone gets excited, two honest caveats, the very ones that make me uneasy.
First, this bear market has unchecked boxes. It's the shallowest drawdown in history at 53%, versus 75% to 83% before, and the CSH Score never broke below 20. But the 2018–19 bear market also reversed without a sub-20 reading. The "final washout" is a pattern, not a law.
Second, timing. The three true reclaims occurred 284, 141, and 118 days after the respective lows. If July 1st was the low, we're on day 60. Bitcoin has never moved this fast from a bear market low to a potential weekly close above the 50-week MA. Fast isn't impossible, just not historical.
So what does this mean? The signal that ended the last three bear markets hasn't triggered yet: a weekly close above the 50-week MA, held in the following weeks. What is here is the setup: a deep score bottom, a violent surge from the low, and price pressing right against the level. My own judgment—just judgment, not the data speaking—I'm about 50/50. It's the most bullish I've been since the top. And the whole point of having an execution plan is that 50/50 doesn't paralyze me. Both outcomes already have instructions.
Jake's Workbench
What I actually did this week: Nothing. I say that to brag.
The plan bought Bitcoin on schedule for seven months, every single day during the 115 days the CSH Score was between 20 and 30. When the score crossed above 30 on August 22nd, it stopped. I still hold the cash reserved for a sub-20 score, a condition that may never happen. If this is the bottom, I've bought the entire window in autopilot. If not, the rules for the next leg down are already written.
I also ran a number that makes the whole approach clear. Take the same total amount since the October peak, bought two ways. Buying every day gives an average cost of $76,551. Buying only on days when the CSH Score was ≤30 gives an average cost of $64,759. Same money, 18.2% more Bitcoin, the only difference being the second buyer wrote down what "cheap" meant before moving.
Another thing on the bench: My Plans has launched CSV import, and I'm the first user. I imported every Bitcoin purchase in my SMSF since August 2024, checking my own history against the score. I had a quarter of my buy volume happen with a CSH Score above 70. All before we built this plan. Wednesday's post will have the full review, including all the unflattering parts.
Jackson Hole turned hawkish. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first major speech Friday, said inflation is too hot (PCE 3.7% for the year, 4.1% annualized over six months, per his data) and opened the door for rate hikes. Per CME data as of Aug 28, futures markets overnight raised the probability of a September hike from 35% to about 59%. Call it a coin flip.
Key dates: August CPI on Sept 11, Fed decision Sept 16. A hike would be the first tightening the crypto market has faced since the 2022 bear market. Worth noting.
Elsewhere: Gold gave back 3.2% this week, equities flat, VIX asleep at 14.4. Whatever drove Bitcoin the last two weeks, it wasn't a risk-on frenzy across all assets.
Only one question this week: Can Bitcoin hold near the 50-week MA, or will it be harshly rejected?
Path One: Bitcoin closes a week above the 50-week MA and holds. That's the signal that ended the last three bear markets, and I'll switch to bullish.
Path Two: A sharp rejection. Every bear market since 2013 has ended rallies here, and I'd expect a retest of the range lows.
Friday night's US jobs report is the only scheduled event heavy enough to decide this.
Both paths have actions in my plan. Below 30 CSH Score, buying resumes. Below 20, layered heavier buys. If we get a weekly close above and hold, I'll state it plainly and switch my positioning language from 50/50 to bullish.
This week was different. I spent the past few weeks throwing every task I hate at Claude, automating the repeatable into scheduled automations. Client call notes, receipts, our weekly data scraping. Hours of my week, gone permanently.
The thinking behind CSH is the same. Find a decision you make repeatedly, write the rules, let the system run. Whether it's admin or buying Bitcoin, written rules beat gut calls.
So the challenge: Write down your five most hated tasks, feed the list to AI, ask which can be automated. Build one this week. The reward isn't getting time back. It's freeing your brain to work on high-leverage decisions, planning, sizing, the next investment. The rest goes to the system.
Back next Sunday.
Crypto Super Hub is for general information and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice and does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Crypto is volatile; you can lose money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before investing. We own Bitcoin ourselves, so please assume we are biased.
Thanks for reading. Share with someone who'd find value in it.
