JPMorgan's 2026 Global Investment Outlook: Economic 'K-Shaped Divergence' Continues; AI Adoption Soars
JPMorgan's 2026 Global Investment Outlook highlights a continued "K-shaped" economic divergence in the U.S., where high-income groups and technology sectors benefit significantly, while middle- and lower-income populations and interest-rate-sensitive industries face ongoing pressure. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, supporting risk assets like equities and corporate credit, though cyclical momentum is limited. The Federal Reserve will continue normalizing interest rates cautiously amid potential volatility.
Key investment themes include balancing portfolios across stocks, bonds, and alternative assets to capture structural opportunities and diversify returns. Three critical questions for investors are whether stocks are overvalued, if profits can remain strong, and whether AI-related stocks are in a bubble. Growth stocks, particularly in technology, remain attractive due to strong earnings, while consumer stocks lag due to tax and spending pressures. AI beneficiaries extend beyond innovators to enablers (industrials, utilities) and adopters (finance, healthcare).
Fixed income investments should focus on high-quality assets, with longer-duration bonds offering potential upside if rates decline. Despite a recent increase in international equity allocations, U.S. equities remain overweighted. The "60/40" stock/bond model is evolving into "60/40+" by incorporating alternatives for lower correlation and reduced volatility. Structural improvements in international markets and a weaker dollar support non-U.S. equities. Investors are advised to emphasize selectivity, diversification, and active management in a complex macro environment.
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