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On October 8, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed's decision to raise interest rates in September was the result of multiple pieces of evidence accumulated over several months, rather than being driven by a single data point. Waller recalled that the Fed had consecutively lowered rates by 75 basis points from September to December 2025. However, in the first half of 2026, the labor market stabilized, inflation progress stalled, conflicts in the Middle East pushed up energy prices, AI developments increased technology consumption prices, and trade conflicts and new tariffs also added upward pressure. After the inflation data in August exceeded expectations, the Fed decided to raise rates in September. Waller noted that the latest data reinforced the assessment of 'stable employment and excessively high inflation.' The core PCE in August rose by 3% year-on-year, and since spring 2024, core inflation has generally been around 2.5% to 3.0%, above the 2% target. He emphasized, 'At least in the near term, policy will focus on the inflation side of our mandate.' Waller is not overly concerned that tightening policy will lead to a severe slowdown, but he is worried that accelerating inflation could raise inflation expectations across the board. Regarding future paths, Waller indicated the possibility of further rate hikes, such as an increase of 75 basis points, but he did not commit to a specific pace or magnitude, emphasizing that it depends on the data. The September forecasts showed that out of 18 participants, 16 expected at least one more rate hike this year, while 4 expected two hikes. The market believes there is an 85% probability of at least one rate hike before December, and nearly 80% probability of at least two hikes by March 2027. Waller stated that if the data meets expectations, further rate hikes are anticipated, but they do not need to occur at consecutive meetings, as long as they are implemented within an acceptable timeframe.

[Fed Governor Waller: Inflation Data Supports September Rate Hike Decision, But No Need for Consecutive Increases]On October 8, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed's decision to raise interest rates in September was the result of multiple pieces of evidence accumulated over several months, rather than being driven by a single data point. Waller recalled that the Fed had consecutively lowered rates by 75 basis points from September to December 2025. However, in the first half of 2026, the labor market stabilized, inflation progress stalled, conflicts in the Middle East pushed up energy prices, AI developments increased technology consumption prices, and trade conflicts and new tariffs also added upward pressure. After the inflation data in August exceeded expectations, the Fed decided to raise rates in September. Waller noted that the latest data reinforced the assessment of 'stable employment and excessively high inflation.' The core PCE in August rose by 3% year-on-year, and since spring 2024, core inflation has generally been around 2.5% to 3.0%, above the 2% target. He emphasized, 'At least in the near term, policy will focus on the inflation side of our mandate.' Waller is not overly concerned that tightening policy will lead to a severe slowdown, but he is worried that accelerating inflation could raise inflation expectations across the board. Regarding future paths, Waller indicated the possibility of further rate hikes, such as an increase of 75 basis points, but he did not commit to a specific pace or magnitude, emphasizing that it depends on the data. The September forecasts showed that out of 18 participants, 16 expected at least one more rate hike this year, while 4 expected two hikes. The market believes there is an 85% probability of at least one rate hike before December, and nearly 80% probability of at least two hikes by March 2027. Waller stated that if the data meets expectations, further rate hikes are anticipated, but they do not need to occur at consecutive meetings, as long as they are implemented within an acceptable timeframe.

Fed Governor Waller: Inflation Data Supports September Rate Hike Decision, But No Need for Consecutive Increases

According to TASS, Kirill Tsarev, First Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board of Sberbank, stated that the bank has noticed a significant interest in cryptocurrency among many clients, and that cryptocurrency has become an indispensable part of the global market.

[Sberbank Executive: Many Clients Show Interest in Cryptocurrency, Exploring Regulatory Tools]According to TASS, Kirill Tsarev, First Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board of Sberbank, stated that the bank has noticed a significant interest in cryptocurrency among many clients, and that cryptocurrency has become an indispensable part of the global market.

Sberbank Executive: Many Clients Show Interest in Cryptocurrency, Exploring Regulatory Tools

Jeff Yan, founder of the decentralized perpetual contract trading platform Hyperliquid, was interviewed by the Empire podcast at DAS 2026 Asia. When asked what he would build if he were a builder and no longer allowed to create infrastructure, he stated he would look for what has yet to be built and has real potential, depending on what other builders are doing. Yan mentioned that at least for now, he might explore options, as he has heard many people want to trade them. He believes that perpetual contracts generally satisfy many users, but some users express that these contracts do not cover all the market views they wish to express. He sees HIP-4 as a very obvious way to build an options protocol, which could inherit spot, order books, and portfolio margin; on the market-making side, perpetual contracts could be used to hedge the delta of options. The key is how to turn that element into something broadly appealing. He does not believe that any products similar to options or convexity yield styles have truly achieved escape velocity in the crypto space, but such products have clearly done so in traditional finance.

[Jeff Yan: If Starting Over, He Might Choose to Research Options]Jeff Yan, founder of the decentralized perpetual contract trading platform Hyperliquid, was interviewed by the Empire podcast at DAS 2026 Asia. When asked what he would build if he were a builder and no longer allowed to create infrastructure, he stated he would look for what has yet to be built and has real potential, depending on what other builders are doing. Yan mentioned that at least for now, he might explore options, as he has heard many people want to trade them. He believes that perpetual contracts generally satisfy many users, but some users express that these contracts do not cover all the market views they wish to express. He sees HIP-4 as a very obvious way to build an options protocol, which could inherit spot, order books, and portfolio margin; on the market-making side, perpetual contracts could be used to hedge the delta of options. The key is how to turn that element into something broadly appealing. He does not believe that any products similar to options or convexity yield styles have truly achieved escape velocity in the crypto space, but such products have clearly done so in traditional finance.

Jeff Yan: If Starting Over, He Might Choose to Research Options

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has issued a statement requiring EU crypto firms to stop providing services related to stablecoins that do not comply with the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework, giving a three-month deadline to address existing risk exposures. ESMA stated on Thursday that national regulators should require relevant firms to promptly manage their remaining exposure to non-compliant stablecoins, no later than January 8, 2027. This guidance applies to crypto services regulated under MiCA, including trading platforms, exchange services, order execution, custody, transfers, investment advice, and portfolio management. ESMA stated that crypto firms should implement technical, contractual, and organizational controls to prevent EU customers from acquiring or increasing exposure to unauthorized stablecoins. Regulators may allow limited services to assist customers in exiting existing positions, including liquidation, exchange, withdrawal, transfer, and custody, but such activities must be temporary and closely monitored. This update expands on the guidance issued by ESMA in January 2025, which called for restrictions on trading and exchange services involving non-compliant stablecoins.

[ESMA Requires EU Crypto Firms to Cease Non-Compliant Stablecoin Services Within 3 Months]The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has issued a statement requiring EU crypto firms to stop providing services related to stablecoins that do not comply with the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework, giving a three-month deadline to address existing risk exposures. ESMA stated on Thursday that national regulators should require relevant firms to promptly manage their remaining exposure to non-compliant stablecoins, no later than January 8, 2027. This guidance applies to crypto services regulated under MiCA, including trading platforms, exchange services, order execution, custody, transfers, investment advice, and portfolio management. ESMA stated that crypto firms should implement technical, contractual, and organizational controls to prevent EU customers from acquiring or increasing exposure to unauthorized stablecoins. Regulators may allow limited services to assist customers in exiting existing positions, including liquidation, exchange, withdrawal, transfer, and custody, but such activities must be temporary and closely monitored. This update expands on the guidance issued by ESMA in January 2025, which called for restrictions on trading and exchange services involving non-compliant stablecoins.

ESMA Requires EU Crypto Firms to Cease Non-Compliant Stablecoin Services Within 3 Months

On October 8, according to the market thematic report released by QCP Macro, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz have stalled. The U.S. has shifted to pressure tactics, including withdrawing the Iranian delegation and imposing additional sanctions, although Qatar's mediation channels remain open. Currently, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 3, compared to a normal average of 26. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has decreased by 28% since May. Energy transportation costs have also risen significantly, with crude oil transportation prices from West Africa to China reaching $27.22 per barrel, a 319% increase from the average of $7.37 per barrel since the beginning of the year. Although crude oil exports have returned to normal, refined oil transportation volumes are still lagging by about 33%. QCP notes that the tightening supply of tankers may indicate that future delivery costs will remain elevated. In the crypto market, the IPO of Anthropic has been postponed to mid-November, with market valuation expectations around $2 trillion; Strategy has slowed down BTC purchases and is prioritizing STRC buybacks; crypto ETF fund flows have also cooled, and the advancement of the U.S. Clarity Act has similarly stalled. A key question for the market now is whether the rising geopolitical premium will further drive the unwinding of risk asset positions, or if the current market positions are already fragile enough to amplify this round of shocks.

[QCP: Rising Geopolitical Premium Increases Vulnerability in Crypto Market Positions]On October 8, according to the market thematic report released by QCP Macro, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz have stalled. The U.S. has shifted to pressure tactics, including withdrawing the Iranian delegation and imposing additional sanctions, although Qatar's mediation channels remain open. Currently, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 3, compared to a normal average of 26. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has decreased by 28% since May. Energy transportation costs have also risen significantly, with crude oil transportation prices from West Africa to China reaching $27.22 per barrel, a 319% increase from the average of $7.37 per barrel since the beginning of the year. Although crude oil exports have returned to normal, refined oil transportation volumes are still lagging by about 33%. QCP notes that the tightening supply of tankers may indicate that future delivery costs will remain elevated. In the crypto market, the IPO of Anthropic has been postponed to mid-November, with market valuation expectations around $2 trillion; Strategy has slowed down BTC purchases and is prioritizing STRC buybacks; crypto ETF fund flows have also cooled, and the advancement of the U.S. Clarity Act has similarly stalled. A key question for the market now is whether the rising geopolitical premium will further drive the unwinding of risk asset positions, or if the current market positions are already fragile enough to amplify this round of shocks.

QCP: Rising Geopolitical Premium Increases Vulnerability in Crypto Market Positions

Ark Protocol's project Second disclosed that its server was attacked on Monday, resulting in a loss of 0.75 Bitcoin from its own funds, approximately $62,300. The team stated that user funds were unaffected and that repairs were completed within a few hours. The attacker subsequently attempted to extract more funds from the project and launched a denial-of-service attack. On Tuesday, Second indicated that the attack might impair the ability of Bark-based wallets to receive Lightning Network transfers. Second noted that the vulnerability occurred during the boarding process on Ark's server, allowing the attacker to register and exit related boards using only their own signature, while also spending the same batch of VTXO in the Lightning Network. The attacker also attempted to use Bitcoin associated with the security vulnerability of Blink Wallet from September 19, but was unsuccessful.

[Second Suffers Hacker Attack, Loses 0.75 Bitcoin; User Funds Unaffected]Ark Protocol's project Second disclosed that its server was attacked on Monday, resulting in a loss of 0.75 Bitcoin from its own funds, approximately $62,300. The team stated that user funds were unaffected and that repairs were completed within a few hours. The attacker subsequently attempted to extract more funds from the project and launched a denial-of-service attack. On Tuesday, Second indicated that the attack might impair the ability of Bark-based wallets to receive Lightning Network transfers. Second noted that the vulnerability occurred during the boarding process on Ark's server, allowing the attacker to register and exit related boards using only their own signature, while also spending the same batch of VTXO in the Lightning Network. The attacker also attempted to use Bitcoin associated with the security vulnerability of Blink Wallet from September 19, but was unsuccessful.

Second Suffers Hacker Attack, Loses 0.75 Bitcoin; User Funds Unaffected

Sun Yuchen, founder of TRON, attended the TOKEN2049 main event in Singapore, where he engaged in a dialogue with Kevin Follonier, founder of the podcast "When Shift Happens." They discussed his personal experiences in the cryptocurrency industry, the integration of AI and blockchain, and the "Sun Yuchen Award." He stated that the fusion of cryptocurrency and AI agents will be one of the most important application scenarios in the next five years. He emphasized that cryptocurrency, as a sustainably iterative software technology, is superior to the long-stagnant traditional banking system, and the new generation of users will be more inclined to use cryptocurrency services. TRON is building an AI economic financial network, with approximately $100 billion in assets under management, processing daily transactions of $20 billion to $30 billion, and promoting the tokenization of U.S. stocks and the AI routing platform B.AI. Recently, Sun Yuchen launched the "Sun Yuchen Award" to more frequently reward contributors in the fields of mathematics and AI, with a maximum prize of $1 million for a single question, and he expressed his intention to reinvest the achievements of cryptocurrency back into science to support ecological development.

[Sun Yuchen: The Fusion of Cryptocurrency and AI Agents Will Be a Key Scenario in the Next 5 Years]Sun Yuchen, founder of TRON, attended the TOKEN2049 main event in Singapore, where he engaged in a dialogue with Kevin Follonier, founder of the podcast "When Shift Happens." They discussed his personal experiences in the cryptocurrency industry, the integration of AI and blockchain, and the "Sun Yuchen Award." He stated that the fusion of cryptocurrency and AI agents will be one of the most important application scenarios in the next five years. He emphasized that cryptocurrency, as a sustainably iterative software technology, is superior to the long-stagnant traditional banking system, and the new generation of users will be more inclined to use cryptocurrency services. TRON is building an AI economic financial network, with approximately $100 billion in assets under management, processing daily transactions of $20 billion to $30 billion, and promoting the tokenization of U.S. stocks and the AI routing platform B.AI. Recently, Sun Yuchen launched the "Sun Yuchen Award" to more frequently reward contributors in the fields of mathematics and AI, with a maximum prize of $1 million for a single question, and he expressed his intention to reinvest the achievements of cryptocurrency back into science to support ecological development.

Sun Yuchen: The Fusion of Cryptocurrency and AI Agents Will Be a Key Scenario in the Next 5 Years

On October 8, Trump stated on October 7 that 70 million American children have been automatically registered for 'Trump Accounts'. To date, $4.5 billion has been deposited into these accounts, a significant portion of which comes from American philanthropists and corporate donors. Starting October 1, the U.S. Treasury will automatically open accounts for 60 million children under the age of 18, in addition to the 10 million children whose parents have voluntarily enrolled.

[Trump Claims 70 Million American Children Automatically Registered for 'Trump Accounts' with $4.5 Billion Deposited]On October 8, Trump stated on October 7 that 70 million American children have been automatically registered for 'Trump Accounts'. To date, $4.5 billion has been deposited into these accounts, a significant portion of which comes from American philanthropists and corporate donors. Starting October 1, the U.S. Treasury will automatically open accounts for 60 million children under the age of 18, in addition to the 10 million children whose parents have voluntarily enrolled.

Trump Claims 70 Million American Children Automatically Registered for 'Trump Accounts' with $4.5 Billion Deposited

Eli Ben-Sasson, co-founder and CEO of StarkWare, stated that Starknet, as an L2 reliant on Ethereum's underlying security, is considering various options, including transitioning to L1, to independently control the network's security migration process in response to the cryptographic risks posed by quantum computing and AI. Built on ZK-STARK, Starknet possesses cryptographic agility and has already established a post-quantum security migration roadmap. Ethereum plans to achieve full quantum attack resistance for L1 by the end of 2029, while Bitcoin has yet to make a similar commitment. Starknet expects to implement relevant upgrades as early as 2027.

[Starknet Considers Transitioning to L1, Quantum Security Upgrade Possible by 2027]Eli Ben-Sasson, co-founder and CEO of StarkWare, stated that Starknet, as an L2 reliant on Ethereum's underlying security, is considering various options, including transitioning to L1, to independently control the network's security migration process in response to the cryptographic risks posed by quantum computing and AI. Built on ZK-STARK, Starknet possesses cryptographic agility and has already established a post-quantum security migration roadmap. Ethereum plans to achieve full quantum attack resistance for L1 by the end of 2029, while Bitcoin has yet to make a similar commitment. Starknet expects to implement relevant upgrades as early as 2027.

Starknet Considers Transitioning to L1, Quantum Security Upgrade Possible by 2027

HTX data monitoring shows that SOL has broken through 100 USDT, currently reported at 100 USDT, with a 24H decline of 2.78%.

【SOL breaks through 100 USDT】HTX data monitoring shows that SOL has broken through 100 USDT, currently reported at 100 USDT, with a 24H decline of 2.78%.

SOL breaks through 100 USDT

Disclaimer：The content above does not represent HTX's positions.，HTX does not provide any trading recommendations.。

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