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Critical Day in Crypto Market: A massive $10.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring, shifting investor focus amidst Bitcoin's struggle near $64,000. Data from Deribit shows approximately $9.69B in Bitcoin options and $830M in Ethereum options set to expire. The put/call ratios are 0.28 for BTC and 0.63 for ETH, indicating overall bullish sentiment, though investors appear more cautious on Ethereum. Analysts note that while these expiries are significant, macroeconomic events and broader market sentiment remain key pricing drivers.

Market remains under pressure from a hawkish Federal Reserve and fading regulatory optimism, yet Bitcoin demonstrates resilience near cycle lows. Despite Chairman Kevin Walsh's firm stance keeping Treasury yields elevated and the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 dropping to 32%, Bitcoin has held within a $62,000-$66,000 range, declining only ~3% over the past week amid these headwinds. Overall market conditions are weak: trading volume is down ~80% from its peak, total market cap has fallen ~50%, and stablecoin supply shows no growth, indicating a lack of fresh dollar liquidity. However, Bitcoin's relative strength versus altcoins suggests significant repositioning may be complete, reducing the likelihood of a sharp further decline. The focus is shifting to whether the cycle bottom is forming. A sustained move above $70,000 could signal the low is in.

Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin Movement in August Bitcoin ends July under market caution due to a lack of new macroeconomic catalysts and regulatory uncertainty, according to Bitbanker analyst Andrey Poroshin. He forecasts that in August, BTC may first test the $60,000–$62,000 range before recovering to around $70,000. The analyst notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's neutral stance provided no strong market signals, with inflation remaining above target. Currently, Bitcoin trades below the U.S. mining cost range of $73,000–$75,000, a key global profitability benchmark, though costs are lower in some countries like Russia. Significant July events include the bankruptcy of derivatives exchange BitMEX, which Poroshin views as a capitulation of weaker market participants, often preceding potential reversal zones. Retail investor activity has declined, with many placing stop orders in the $60,000–$62,000 range, where significant liquidity is concentrated and could be tested. While geopolitical factors like U.S.-Iran tensions are losing market impact, regulatory uncertainty persists as the U.S. CLARITY Act vote was postponed to September. Typically, August sees lower trading activity due to holidays, leading to more technical, less volatile price movements. Poroshin's base scenario for August is a test of $60,000–$62,000 followed by a recovery to $70,000, with more significant moves likely in September post-Fed signals and potential CLARITY Act developments. Separately, a Russian deputy finance minister stated that non-qualified investors in Russia will soon be allowed to legally purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major stablecoins, with an annual limit of 300,000 rubles per intermediary.

Bitcoin remained around $64,300 on Friday, largely unaffected by a record 17% surge in South Korea's Kospi stock index, which rebounded from a sharp sell-off. Major cryptocurrencies showed minimal price movement: Ethereum traded at $1,907, XRP at $1.08, Solana at $74, and Dogecoin at $0.07. BNB was an exception, rising 3% to $590. Weekly performance remained weak overall, with Bitcoin down 2%. In contrast, stock markets saw a sharp reversal, led by chipmakers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Taiwan Semiconductor. Bitcoin, which had closely tracked semiconductor stocks in July, did not participate in this equity rebound. The market also shrugged off a security breach affecting approximately 500 Bitcoin wallets, resulting in a theft of about 594 BTC ($38 million). Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakened after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, partially reversing its prior sharp gain against the dollar.

Bitcoin continues to trade sideways around $64,000 amid ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. As BTC struggles for direction, an analyst predicts the next major uptrend could commence after the U.S. midterm elections. João Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics firm Alphractal, revisited the connection between Bitcoin's price movements and the U.S. election calendar in his latest analysis. Wedson claims that analyzing past market cycles reveals similar patterns in Bitcoin's price behavior, particularly around U.S. midterm and presidential elections. Historically, Bitcoin has faced headwinds leading up to midterms but tends to recover once election-related uncertainty subsides. Based on historical data, Bitcoin entered bear markets roughly a year before past midterm elections, only to initiate prolonged bull markets after the elections concluded. In some cycles, price bottoms formed just days before the vote, while in others, the low occurred immediately after. The analyst also noted presidential elections have a distinct impact: Bitcoin experiences strong rallies each time a president wins re-election and approaches the peak of its main cycle shortly after the presidential inauguration. As an example, Wedson pointed to XRP, which began a sharp rise on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reached a local peak on January 20, 2025, his inauguration day.